Orlando City vs DC United prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Orlando City-DC United score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Orlando City score 2.6 goals per game and concede 2.4 over their last 5 matches. The club has 9 points from 15 over that stretch. DC United score 1.2 goals per game and concede 2.0 over their last 5 matches. The club has 5 points from 15 over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 2.02: our model expects 2.21 goals from Orlando City and 1.29 from DC United, 3.50 in total: the line sits right on the expected total, and the Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals. Recent xG created by the two attacks combined come to 2.99, a volume below the line. Some numbers cut against this read, though: Orlando City went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches and DC United in 70%, and Orlando City score 2.6 goals per game over the last 5. Our lean is the under 3.5: the 2.02 price pays our estimate, 56.9% against 49.5% implied.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.34: our model leans this way at 68.1%, a probability verified over two test seasons in this league. The price implies 74.6%, so it does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.11: our model gives 84.3%, the price 90.1%. The price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.76: our model gives Orlando City 57.0%, the draw 22.9% and DC United 20.1%. The market also sees Orlando City as favorite and gives the draw 21.8%. Our lean is an Orlando City win: against the 1.76 price (56.8% implied), the edge is thin, +0.2 pts.
Home draw no bet @ 1.36: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if DC United win. Our lean is this line at 73.9% against 73.5% for the price: the edge is thin, +0.4 pts.
Double chance 1X (home or draw) @ 1.25: it covers two outcomes out of three, an Orlando City win or a draw. Our model gives 79.9% against 80.0% for the price, which does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.36: our model gives 63.6%, a probability verified over two test seasons in this league. Orlando City have scored in every one of their last 10 matches, while DC United failed to score in 40% of theirs. This scenario fits with an Under 3.5 on scores like 1-1, 2-1 or 1-2. The price implies 73.5%: it does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks the Under 3.5 is a game with 4 goals or more: Orlando City score 2.6 goals per game and concede 2.4 over their last 5 matches. We accept that risk because DC United score 1.2 goals per game over that stretch, a volume that caps the total on the visitors' side.
Our lean is under 3.5 goals @ 2.02, with no firm bet; an Orlando City win remains a read with a thin edge. No line meets our publication criteria as an official pick.
Absences
- 🩹 R. Jansson — Orlando City · Foot Injury
- 🩹 Vinicius Nogueira — Orlando City · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 J. Ellis — Orlando City · Illness
- 🩹 T. Spicer — Orlando City · Foot Injury
- 🩹 G. Dorsey — Orlando City · Back Injury
- 🩹 L. Bartlett — DC United · Red Card
- 🩹 H. Kijima — DC United · Leg Injury
- 🩹 L. Munteanu — DC United · Leg Injury
- 🩹 G. Segal — DC United · Leg Injury
- 🩹 B. Ojeda — Orlando City · Foot Injury
- 🩹 M. Pasalic — Orlando City · Yellow Cards
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
DC United
STAT
Orlando City
Orlando CityHOMDC UnitedAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Orlando City – DC United ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Orlando City – DC United ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
