New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
New York Red Bulls-Toronto FC score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
New York Red Bulls score 1.4 goals per game and concede 1.4 over their last 5 matches. The club has 9 points from 15 over that stretch. Toronto FC score 1.0 goal per game and concede 2.0 over their last 5 matches. The club has 6 points from 15 over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.77: our model expects 1.73 goals from New York Red Bulls and 1.35 from Toronto FC, 3.08 in total. The central scenario is an open game that stays under 4 goals, the point where the Under 3.5 loses. Recent xG created by the two attacks combined come to 3.33, a volume below the 3.5 line. Two numbers cut against this read, though: Toronto FC went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches and concede 2.0 per game over the last 5. The 1.77 price pays our estimate: 66.2% against 56.5% implied.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.47: our model leans this way at 59.7%, a probability verified over two test seasons in this league. The price implies 68.0%, so it does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.15: our model gives 79.8%, the price 87.0%. The price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 2.08: our model gives New York Red Bulls 44.9%, the draw 26.9% and Toronto FC 28.2%. The market also sees New York Red Bulls as favorite and gives the draw 24.1%. Against the 2.08 price (48.1% implied), the edge is negative: the price does not pay this scenario.
Home draw no bet @ 1.60: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if New York Red Bulls lose. Our model gives 61.4% against 62.5% for the price: the gap is thin and unfavorable.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.26: it covers two outcomes out of three, a win for either side. Our model gives 73.1% against 79.4% for the price, which does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.40: our model gives 61.4%, a probability verified over two test seasons in this league. New York Red Bulls failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches, Toronto FC in 20%. This scenario fits with an Under 3.5 on scores like 1-1, 2-1 or 1-2. The price implies 71.4%: it does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks the Under 3.5 is a game with 4 goals or more: Toronto FC went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches. We accept that risk because Toronto FC score just 1.0 goal per game over their last 5 matches, a volume that leaves little room for a wide-open game.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.77, an official pick. The other lines remain reads without an edge.
Absences
- 🩹 B. Kuscevic — Toronto FC · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 R. Laryea — Toronto FC · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 R. Donkor — New York Red Bulls · Leg Injury
- 🩹 A. Marcucci — New York Red Bulls · Knee Injury
- 🩹 N. Palacio — Toronto FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 W. Zimmerman — Toronto FC · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 J. Osorio — Toronto FC · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 D. Mihailovic — Toronto FC · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Che — New York Red Bulls · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 C. Harper — New York Red Bulls · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Marshall-Rutty — New York Red Bulls · Hamstring Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Toronto FC
STAT
New York Red Bulls
New York Red BullsHOMToronto FCAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue New York Red Bulls – Toronto FC ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour New York Red Bulls – Toronto FC ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
