New York City vs Los Angeles FC prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
New York City-Los Angeles FC score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
New York City scores 1.4 goals per game over its last 5 matches and concedes 1.6. The club has 4 points from 15. Los Angeles FC scores 1.2 goals per game and concedes 1.4 over that stretch. The club has 5 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals: we back under 3.5 goals @ 1.50, with a model probability of 64.4% against an implied probability of 66.7%. The bet loses at 4 goals. Our model expects 1.58 goals from New York City and 1.55 from Los Angeles FC, a total of 3.12. Recent xG created by the two attacks combined is 2.83, under the line, so it points the same way. The one contrary data point: New York City has gone over 2.5 goals in 60% of its last 10 matches, Los Angeles FC in 30%.
Over 2.5 goals: our lean is over 2.5 goals @ 1.74 (60.8%, verified probability), against an implied probability of 57.5%. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome: this lean is a reading, not a scenario added to the official pick.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to over 1.5 goals @ 1.23 (80.4%). The implied probability is 81.3%, so the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win: our model gives New York City 36.2%, the draw 28.8% and Los Angeles FC 35.0%, a balanced matchup. The market sees Los Angeles FC as favorite (39.4% with the margin removed) and gives the draw 27.2%. Our lean is a New York City win @ 2.90 (36.2%, implied probability 34.5%).
Home draw no bet: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if Los Angeles FC wins. Our lean is this line @ 2.06 (50.8%, implied probability 48.5%).
Double chance 12 (no draw): it covers two outcomes out of three and loses on a draw. Our model leans to it @ 1.30 (71.2%, verified probability); the price does not pay this scenario (76.9% implied).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our lean is this line @ 1.60 (62.8%, verified probability), against an implied probability of 62.5%. Los Angeles FC failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches, New York City in 10%.
The scenario that sinks the under 3.5 is a game with 4 goals or more: New York City has gone over 2.5 goals in 60% of its last 10 matches. We accept that risk, because Los Angeles FC has done so in only 30% of its own.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.50. The over 2.5, both teams to score, New York City win and draw no bet leans remain readings, with no firm bet. No staking advice.
Absences
- 🩹 D. Baiera — New York City · Knee Injury
- 🩹 A. Farnos — New York City · Injury
- 🩹 M. Moralez — New York City · Knee Injury
- 🩹 K. Parks — New York City · Injury
- 🩹 K. Trewin — New York City · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 C. Carter — Los Angeles FC · Arm Injury
- 🩹 J. Ebobisse — Los Angeles FC · Leg Injury
- 🩹 T. Tillman — Los Angeles FC · Injury
- 🩹 M. Ilenic — New York City · Illness
- 🩹 Talles Magno — New York City · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 T. Hasal — Los Angeles FC · Arm Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Los Angeles FC
STAT
New York City
New York CityHOMLos Angeles FCAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue New York City – Los Angeles FC ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour New York City – Los Angeles FC ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
