New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
New England Revolution-Chicago Fire score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
New England Revolution scores 1.6 goals per game over its last 5 matches and concedes 2.0. The club has 9 points from 15. Chicago Fire scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1.4 over that stretch. The club has 9 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals: we back under 3.5 goals @ 1.75, with a model probability of 56.0% against an implied probability of 57.1%. The bet loses at 4 goals. Our model expects 1.81 goals from New England Revolution and 1.65 from Chicago Fire, a total of 3.45, so the line sits right next to the central scenario. Two data points run against this read: recent xG created by the two attacks combined reaches 3.58, above the line, and New England Revolution has gone over 2.5 goals in 90% of its last 10 matches, Chicago Fire in 70%. Our model probability is what counts over the xG.
Over 2.5 goals: our model leans to over 2.5 goals @ 1.48 (67.5%, verified probability). The implied probability is 67.6%: the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to over 1.5 goals @ 1.15 (84.1%). The implied probability is 87.0%, so the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win: our model gives New England Revolution 39.4%, the draw 27.9% and Chicago Fire 32.7%. The market sees New England Revolution as favorite (39.9% with the margin removed) and gives the draw 25.2%. Our model leans to a New England Revolution win @ 2.44 (implied probability 41.0%); the price does not pay this scenario.
Home draw no bet: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if Chicago Fire wins. Our model leans to this line @ 1.78 (54.7%); the price does not pay this scenario (56.2% implied).
Double chance 12 (no draw): it covers two outcomes out of three and loses on a draw. Our model leans to it @ 1.27 (72.1%); the price does not pay this scenario (78.7% implied).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line @ 1.40 (67.1%, verified probability). The price does not pay this scenario: the implied probability is 71.4%.
The scenario that sinks the under 3.5 is a game with 4 goals or more: New England Revolution has gone over 2.5 goals in 90% of its last 10 matches. We accept that risk, because the club failed to score in 20% of those 10 matches.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.75. The other lines remain readings whose price does not pay the scenario.
Absences
- 🩹 L. Campana — New England Revolution · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 M. Fofana — New England Revolution · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 J. Harrison — New England Revolution · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 A. Yusuf — New England Revolution · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Elliott — Chicago Fire · Red Card
- 🩹 A. Franco — Chicago Fire · Knee Injury
- 🩹 R. Lod — Chicago Fire · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 A. Mekvabishvili — Chicago Fire · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 S. Rogers — Chicago Fire · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 D. D'Avilla — Chicago Fire · Red Card
- 🩹 R. Turdean — Chicago Fire · Inactive
- 🩹 N. Allen — Chicago Fire · International duty
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Chicago Fire
STAT
New England Revolution
New England RevolutionHOMChicago FireAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue New England Revolution – Chicago Fire ?
Le match se joue le 18/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour New England Revolution – Chicago Fire ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
