Hamburg vs VfB Stuttgart prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Hamburg-VfB Stuttgart score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Hamburg sit 12th in the table. Hamburg took 4 points from 15 over their last 5 matches, scoring 0.6 goals and conceding 2.8 per game. VfB Stuttgart are 11th. VfB Stuttgart took 4 points from 15 over their last 5 matches, scoring 1.6 goals and conceding 2.2 per game.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals: our lean goes to this line. Our model expects 3.70 goals in total, 1.40 for Hamburg and 2.30 for VfB Stuttgart. 80% of each club's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. Hamburg concede 2.8 goals per game and VfB Stuttgart 2.2. The recent xG created by the two attacks added together reach 2.83, a chance-volume indicator separate from our probability. The probability is verified over two test seasons in this league: that is evidence of reliability, not an edge over the price. At 1.40, the price pays our estimate, a thin edge of +0.7 pts.
Over 1.5 goals: our lean goes to this line at 1.13. The price pays our estimate by a thin +0.5 pts.
Over 3.5 goals: our lean goes to this line at 2.02, an edge of +2.5 pts. The recent xG created (2.83) stay below this line and run against it. The model probability takes precedence, with 3.70 expected goals, but this read is more fragile than the Over 2.5.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
VfB Stuttgart win: our lean goes to this outcome at 1.90. Our model gives VfB Stuttgart 54.5%, the draw 26.9% and Hamburg 18.6%. Both clubs have 4 points from 15, but Hamburg failed to score in 60% of their last 10 matches against 20% for VfB Stuttgart. The price pays our estimate by +1.9 pts.
VfB Stuttgart draw no bet: our lean goes to this line at 1.39. A draw returns the stake; a VfB Stuttgart defeat loses it. Edge of +2.7 pts.
Double chance X2: our lean goes to this line at 1.28, covering the draw and a VfB Stuttgart win, two outcomes out of three. Edge of +3.3 pts.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line, but the 1.40 price does not pay this scenario (-2.4 pts).
The scenario that sinks Over 2.5 is a closed game: Hamburg score 0.6 goals per game over their last 5 matches. We accept this risk, because 80% of their last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals @ 1.40. On the result, our lean goes to VfB Stuttgart, with no official pick.
Absences
- 🩹 A. Rossing-Lelesiit — Hamburg · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 A. S. Lokonga — Hamburg · Lacking Match Fitness
- 🩹 P. Daka — Hamburg · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 A. Gronbaek — Hamburg · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 M. Vuskovic — Hamburg · Doping
- 🩹 Z. El Ouahdi — Hamburg · Illness
- 🩹 B. Jatta — Hamburg · Groin Injury
- 🩹 B. Nadir — Hamburg · Groin Injury
- 🩹 Y. Poulsen — Hamburg · Injury
- 🩹 N. Remberg — Hamburg · Injury
- 🩹 A. Al Dakhil — VfB Stuttgart · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Diehl — VfB Stuttgart · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
VfB Stuttgart
STAT
Hamburg
HamburgHOMVfB StuttgartAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Hamburg – VfB Stuttgart ?
Le match se joue le 17/10/2026 à 15:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Hamburg – VfB Stuttgart ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
