Elversberg vs FC Augsburg prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Elversberg-FC Augsburg score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
GAME CONTEXT
Elversberg sit 9th in the table. Elversberg took 12 points from 15 over their last 5 matches, scoring 3.0 goals and conceding 2.4 per game. FC Augsburg are 6th. FC Augsburg took 7 points from 15 over their last 5 matches, scoring 2.2 goals and conceding 2.0 per game.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals: our lean goes to this line. Our model expects 3.59 goals in total, 1.81 for Elversberg and 1.77 for FC Augsburg. 100% of Elversberg's last 10 matches and 90% of FC Augsburg's went over 2.5 goals, and the recent xG created by the two attacks added together reach 3.07. The tables point the same way as our probability. It is verified over two test seasons in this league: that is evidence of reliability, not an edge over the price. At 1.47, the price pays our estimate by +2.2 pts.
Over 1.5 goals: our lean goes to this line at 1.15. The price pays our estimate, a thin edge of +1.3 pts.
Under 3.5 goals: our model leans to this line, but the 1.81 price does not pay this scenario (-4.4 pts). Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome against 3.59 expected goals.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Elversberg win: our model leans to this outcome, but the 2.55 price does not pay this scenario (-3.3 pts). Our model gives Elversberg 35.9%, the draw 29.7% and FC Augsburg 34.3%: the balance of power is tight.
Elversberg draw no bet: our model leans to this line, but the 1.89 price does not pay this scenario (-1.7 pts). A draw returns the stake; an Elversberg defeat loses it.
Double chance 12 (no draw): our model leans to this line, which covers two outcomes out of three, but the 1.30 price does not pay this scenario (-6.6 pts). The probability is verified over two test seasons, which is not an edge over the price.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line, but the 1.40 price does not pay this scenario (-1.3 pts). Elversberg failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches, FC Augsburg in 0%.
The scenario that sinks Over 2.5 is a closed game: Elversberg failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches. We accept this risk, because Elversberg score 3.0 goals per game over their last 5 matches.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals @ 1.47. No result line pays our estimate: we take no read on the winner, with no official pick.
Absences
- 🩹 S. Suso — FC Augsburg · Inactive
- 🩹 N. Banks — FC Augsburg · Knee Injury
- 🩹 T. Breithaupt — FC Augsburg · Toe Injury
- 🩹 S. Mounie — FC Augsburg · Injury
- 🩹 A. Claude-Maurice — FC Augsburg · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Bah — FC Augsburg · Calf Injury
- 🩹 U. Ogundu — FC Augsburg · Abdominal strain
- 🩹 A. Kade — FC Augsburg · Calf Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
FC Augsburg
STAT
Elversberg
ElversbergHOMFC AugsburgAWYHead-to-Head
Unlock all picks and the full analysis
The verdict on every market, the full written analysis, absences, referee stats and the best price from around ten bookmakers — no commitment.
Secure Stripe payment — Analysis independent from the betting market
Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Elversberg – FC Augsburg ?
Le match se joue le 17/10/2026 à 15:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Elversberg – FC Augsburg ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
