St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
St. Louis City-Vancouver Whitecaps score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
St. Louis City scores 3.0 goals per game and concedes 1.2 over its last 5 matches. The club has 13 points from 15 over that stretch. Vancouver Whitecaps score 2.2 goals per game and concede 1.6 over their last 5 matches. The club has 7 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.53: our lean goes to this total. Our model expects 2.06 goals from St. Louis City and 1.51 from Vancouver Whitecaps, 3.56 in all: an open game. Recent xG created (4.42 for the two attacks combined) points the same way, and 80% of each club's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. Our 69.4% probability is verified across two test seasons in this league; that is neither a guarantee nor an edge over the price. The implied probability is 65.4%, or +4.0 points.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.17: our model leans to this line (85.0%, against 85.5% implied). The scenario is likely, but the price does not pay it.
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.67: our model leans to this line (56.1%, against 59.9% implied); the price does not pay this scenario. The bet loses at 4 goals. Paired with over 2.5, it wins only on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome, while our model expects 3.56 goals.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 2.37: our lean goes to St. Louis City, at 48.5% for them, 25.4% for the draw and 26.1% for Vancouver Whitecaps. The implied probability is 42.2%, or +6.3 points. The recent xG created gap (-0.14 for St. Louis City) points the other way; our model's probability prevails. The market also sees St. Louis City as favorite.
Home draw no bet @ 1.76: our lean goes to this line (65.0%, against 56.8% implied, or +8.2 points). The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a St. Louis City defeat, however narrow.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.28: our model leans to this line (74.6%, against 78.1% implied); the price does not pay this scenario. It covers two outcomes out of three and loses on a draw.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.45: our model leans to this line (67.3%, against 69.0% implied); the price does not pay this scenario. Our probability is verified across two test seasons, which is not an edge. St. Louis City scored in each of its last 10 matches, while Vancouver Whitecaps failed to score in 10% of theirs. Vancouver Whitecaps kept a clean sheet in 50% of their last 10 matches.
The scenario that sinks over 2.5: Vancouver Whitecaps shut the game down and it ends with 2 goals or fewer. The club kept a clean sheet in 50% of its last 10 matches. We accept that risk, because Vancouver Whitecaps went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals @ 1.53, with a St. Louis City win and home draw no bet as further leans; there is no official pick on this match. No staking advice.
Absences
- 🩹 S. Adekugbe — Vancouver Whitecaps · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Badwal — Vancouver Whitecaps · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 K. G. Cabrera Nakamura — Vancouver Whitecaps · Foot Injury
- 🩹 B. Halbouni — Vancouver Whitecaps · Knee Injury
- 🩹 T. Muller — Vancouver Whitecaps · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 Celio Pompeu — St. Louis City · Knee Injury
- 🩹 C. Wallem — St. Louis City · Injury
- 🩹 K. Hiebert — St. Louis City · Hip Injury
- 🩹 T. Blackmon — Vancouver Whitecaps · Red Card
- 🩹 M. Gherasimencov — Vancouver Whitecaps · International duty
- 🩹 E. Ocampo — Vancouver Whitecaps · International duty
- 🩹 R. Priso — Vancouver Whitecaps · International duty
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Vancouver Whitecaps
STAT
St. Louis City
St. Louis CityHOMVancouver WhitecapsAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue St. Louis City – Vancouver Whitecaps ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 02:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour St. Louis City – Vancouver Whitecaps ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
