San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
San Diego FC-Houston Dynamo score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
San Diego FC has taken 2 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 2.8 over that stretch. Houston Dynamo has taken 5 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scores 0.8 goals per game and concedes 1.2 over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.57: we back this scenario (model probability 65.8%, implied probability 63.7%, edge +2.1 pts, a thin edge). Our model expects 1.70 goals for San Diego FC and 1.38 for Houston Dynamo, a game that has to stop at 3 goals or fewer for the line to win. Recent xG created by the two attacks added together (2.50) stays below the 3.5 line. Some numbers cut against this read: San Diego FC concedes 2.8 goals per game and has gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.66: our model leans this way (model probability 59.7%, implied probability 60.2%), but the price does not pay this scenario. That probability is verified over two test seasons of MLS; it is neither a guarantee nor an edge on the price. The xG created (2.50) lands right on the line. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.20: our model leans this way (model probability 79.8%, implied probability 83.3%), but the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
San Diego FC win @ 2.25: our model leans this way (43.3%, against 44.4% implied probability); the price does not pay this scenario. Our model gives 27.2% to the draw and 29.5% to Houston Dynamo. The market also makes San Diego FC the favorite, at 42.3% with the margin removed. San Diego FC has still taken fewer points than Houston Dynamo over 5 matches (2 against 5).
San Diego FC draw no bet @ 1.62: our model leans this way (59.5%, against 61.7% implied probability); the price does not pay this scenario. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat, however narrow.
Double chance 12 @ 1.29: our model leans this way (72.8%, against 77.5% implied probability); the price does not pay this scenario. It wins if either club wins and loses on a draw.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.53: our model leans this way (model probability 61.8%, implied probability 65.4%), but the price does not pay this scenario. That probability is verified over two test seasons of MLS, with no guarantee. San Diego FC has failed to score in 20% of its last 10 matches, Houston Dynamo in 40%.
The scenario that sinks the Under 3.5 is a game of 4 goals or more. San Diego FC concedes 2.8 goals per game and has gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches. We accept that risk, because Houston Dynamo scores 0.8 goals per game.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.57, with no staking advice. The other lines are readings where the price does not pay the scenario.
Absences
- 🩹 Felipe Andrade — Houston Dynamo · Injury
- 🩹 J. Maurer — Houston Dynamo · Concussion
- 🩹 A. Resch — Houston Dynamo · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 O. Soe — San Diego FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 L. Ennali — Houston Dynamo · Injury
- 🩹 H. Herrera — Houston Dynamo · Red Card
- 🩹 Gabriel Pirani — San Diego FC · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 A. Pellegrino — San Diego FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 S. Vines — San Diego FC · Lower-Body Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Houston Dynamo
STAT
San Diego FC
San Diego FCHOMHouston DynamoAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue San Diego FC – Houston Dynamo ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 04:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour San Diego FC – Houston Dynamo ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
