Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Real Salt Lake-San Jose Earthquakes score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Real Salt Lake score 0.8 goals per game and concede 1.8 over their last 5 matches. The club has 3 points from 15 over that stretch. San Jose Earthquakes score 2.0 goals per game and concede 1.2 over their last 5 matches. The club has 11 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.70: we back this total as an official pick. Our model expects 1.63 goals from Real Salt Lake and 1.55 from San Jose Earthquakes, 3.17 in all. Recent xG created (2.60 for the two attacks combined) stays well below 3.5. One data point cuts against the line: 60% of each club's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. The implied probability is 58.8%, against 67.1% on our side, or +8.3 points. The bet loses at 4 goals.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.50: our model leans to this total (61.8%, against 66.7% implied); the price does not pay this scenario. Our probability is verified across two test seasons in this league, which is neither a guarantee nor an edge over the price. Paired with under 3.5, this total wins only on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.16: our model leans to this line (80.9%, against 86.2% implied); the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 2.05: our model leans to Real Salt Lake, at 37.6% against 28.3% for the draw and 34.1% for San Jose Earthquakes. The implied probability is 48.8%; the price does not pay this scenario. The recent xG created gap (0.08 for Real Salt Lake) is thin. The market sees Real Salt Lake as favorite, while San Jose Earthquakes have 11 points from 15 against 3 for Real Salt Lake over their last 5 matches.
Home draw no bet @ 1.53: our model leans to this line (52.5%, against 65.4% implied); the price does not pay this scenario. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a Real Salt Lake defeat.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.25: our model leans to this line (71.7%, against 80.0% implied); the price does not pay this scenario. It covers two outcomes out of three and loses on a draw.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.44: our model leans to this line (63.5%, against 69.4% implied); the price does not pay this scenario. Our probability is verified across two test seasons, which is not an edge. Real Salt Lake failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches, San Jose Earthquakes in 10% of theirs.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5: San Jose Earthquakes run away with it and the game reaches 4 goals. The club scores 2.0 goals per game over its last 5 matches, and Real Salt Lake concede 1.8. We accept that risk, because Real Salt Lake score 0.8 goals per game over their last 5 matches and failed to score in 40% of their last 10.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.70 as an official pick. No other line on this match is retained. No staking advice.
Absences
- 🩹 N. Adimabua — San Jose Earthquakes · Hernia
- 🩹 J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza — San Jose Earthquakes · Injury
- 🩹 D. Johnson — San Jose Earthquakes · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 D. Jones — San Jose Earthquakes · Achilles Tendon Injury
- 🩹 B. Kikanovic — San Jose Earthquakes · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 J. Skahan — San Jose Earthquakes · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 N. Tsakiris — San Jose Earthquakes · Upper-Body Injury
- 🩹 J. J. Arias — Real Salt Lake · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 E. Eneli — Real Salt Lake · Knee Injury
- 🩹 L. Engel — Real Salt Lake · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 J. Glad — Real Salt Lake · Groin Injury
- 🩹 D. Luna — Real Salt Lake · Knee Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
San Jose Earthquakes
STAT
Real Salt Lake
Real Salt LakeHOMSan Jose EarthquakesAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Real Salt Lake – San Jose Earthquakes ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 03:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Real Salt Lake – San Jose Earthquakes ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
