Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Nashville SC-Sporting Kansas City score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Nashville SC scores 1.6 goals per game and concedes 0.8 over its last 5 matches. Nashville SC has taken 8 points out of 15 in that stretch. Sporting Kansas City scores 2.4 goals per game and concedes 2.2 over its last 5 matches. Sporting Kansas City has collected 6 points out of 15 in that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals. Our lean is under 3.5 goals at 2.08. Our probability is 55.3%, the odds imply 48.1%, an edge of +7.2 points. The bet loses at 4 goals. Several data points cut against this read: our model expects 2.41 goals from Nashville SC and 1.21 from Sporting Kansas City, a total of 3.62, higher than the line; recent xG created, at 3.46, sits close to it; and 70% of Nashville SC's last 10 matches and 60% of Sporting Kansas City's went over 2.5 goals. Our probability is the reference over xG, which only measures chance volume.
Over 2.5 goals. Our model leans to over 2.5 goals at 1.32, with 70.3% (verified probability) against 75.8% for the odds. The edge is -5.5 points: the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals. Our model leans to over 1.5 goals at 1.10, with 85.4% against 90.9% for the odds. The edge is -5.5 points: the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win. Our model leans to Nashville SC at 1.26: 63.0% for Nashville SC, 20.5% for the draw, 16.5% for Sporting Kansas City. The odds imply 79.4%, an edge of -16.4 points: the price does not pay this scenario. The market also sees Nashville SC as a clear favorite, with 13.7% on the draw.
Home draw no bet. Our model leans to Nashville SC draw no bet at 1.08, with 79.2% against 92.6% for the odds. The edge is -13.4 points: the price does not pay this scenario. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat, however narrow.
Double chance 1X (home or draw). Our model leans to double chance 1X at 1.07, with 83.5% against 93.5% for the odds. The edge is -10.0 points: the price does not pay this scenario. The line covers two outcomes out of three.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes. Our lean is this line at 1.67, with 62.2% (verified probability) against 59.9% for the odds: the edge is +2.3 points. Sporting Kansas City failed to score in 30% of its last 10 matches, Nashville SC in 10%. Nashville SC kept a clean sheet in 50% of its last 10 matches, a data point that cuts against this line.
The scenario that sinks the main line: Nashville SC locks down its goal and Sporting Kansas City stays silent. Nashville SC kept a clean sheet in 50% of its last 10 matches, and concedes 0.8 per game over its last 5. We accept that risk, because Sporting Kansas City scores 2.4 goals per game over the same stretch.
Our lean is both teams to score: yes, with under 3.5 goals as a second read. None of these lines is an official pick.
Absences
- 🩹 O. Presthus — Nashville SC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 F. Camara — Nashville SC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 O. Blorian — Sporting Kansas City · Chest Injury
- 🩹 Diego Borges — Sporting Kansas City · Groin Injury
- 🩹 L. Johnsen — Sporting Kansas City · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 M. Mosquera — Sporting Kansas City · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 O. Wolff — Sporting Kansas City · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Reynolds — Sporting Kansas City · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 Capita — Sporting Kansas City · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 J. Davis — Sporting Kansas City · Injury
- 🩹 W. Madrigal — Nashville SC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 C. Espinoza — Nashville SC · Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Sporting Kansas City
STAT
Nashville SC
Nashville SCHOMSporting Kansas CityAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Nashville SC – Sporting Kansas City ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 02:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Nashville SC – Sporting Kansas City ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
