Los Angeles FC vs Austin FC prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Los Angeles FC-Austin FC score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Los Angeles FC has taken 5 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1.6 over that stretch. Austin FC has taken 7 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1.2 over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.60: we back this scenario (model probability 61.3%, implied probability 62.5%, edge -1.2 pts). Our model expects 1.80 goals for Los Angeles FC and 1.24 for Austin FC, an open game that still stays below 4 goals, the point where Under 3.5 loses. Recent xG created by the two attacks added together (2.46) sits below the line. One number cuts the other way: Austin FC has gone over 2.5 goals in 50% of its last 10 matches, against 30% for Los Angeles FC.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.60: our model leans this way (model probability 58.6%, implied probability 62.5%), but the price does not pay this scenario. That probability is verified over two test seasons of MLS; it is neither a guarantee nor an edge on the price. The xG created (2.46) lands just under the 2.5 line; our model's probability prevails. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.19: our model leans this way (model probability 79.1%, implied probability 84.0%), but the price does not pay this scenario. Two goals are enough to win.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Los Angeles FC win @ 1.47: our model leans this way (49.2%, against 68.0% implied probability); the price does not pay this scenario. Our model gives 25.7% to the draw and 25.1% to Austin FC. The market also makes Los Angeles FC the favorite, at 65.3% with the margin removed. Austin FC has still taken more points over 5 matches (7 against 5).
Los Angeles FC draw no bet @ 1.17: our model leans this way (66.2%, against 85.5% implied probability); the price does not pay this scenario. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat, however narrow.
Double chance 1X @ 1.13: our model leans this way (74.9%, against 88.5% implied probability); the price does not pay this scenario. It covers two outcomes out of three.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.72: our lean goes to this line (model probability 59.7%, implied probability 58.1%, edge +1.6 pts). That probability is verified over two test seasons of MLS, without guaranteeing anything. Paired with the Under 3.5, it points to a game of 2 or 3 goals where each club scores. Los Angeles FC has failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches, Austin FC in 20%.
The scenario that sinks the Under 3.5 is an open game of 4 goals or more. Austin FC has gone over 2.5 goals in 50% of its last 10 matches, and Los Angeles FC concedes 1.6 goals per game. We accept that risk, because Los Angeles FC has failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.60, with no staking advice. Both teams to score: yes remains a lean, and the other lines are readings without an edge.
Absences
- 🩹 Z. Kolmanic — Austin FC · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 M. Desler — Austin FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 C. Carter — Los Angeles FC · Arm Injury
- 🩹 J. Ebobisse — Los Angeles FC · Leg Injury
- 🩹 T. Tillman — Los Angeles FC · Injury
- 🩹 T. Hasal — Los Angeles FC · Arm Injury
- 🩹 J. Rosales — Austin FC · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 P. Placheta — Austin FC · Lower-Body Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Austin FC
STAT
Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FCHOMAustin FCAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Los Angeles FC – Austin FC ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 04:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Los Angeles FC – Austin FC ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
