FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
FC Dallas-Seattle Sounders score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
FC Dallas scores 1.8 goals per game and concedes 1.0 over its last 5 matches. FC Dallas has taken 13 points out of 15 in that stretch. Seattle Sounders scores 2.2 goals per game and concedes 1.2 over its last 5 matches. Seattle Sounders has collected 11 points out of 15 in that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals. We back under 3.5 goals at 1.62. Our probability is 58.5%, the odds imply 61.7%; the edge shown on the line is -3.2 points, and we state it as it is. The bet loses at 4 goals. Our model expects 1.85 goals from FC Dallas and 1.45 from Seattle Sounders, a total of 3.29. Recent xG created, at 3.07, sits lower than the line and points the same way. One data point cuts against it: 70% of FC Dallas's last 10 matches and 50% of Seattle Sounders's went over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals. Our lean is over 2.5 goals at 1.57, with 64.2% (verified probability) against 63.7% for the odds: the edge is thin, +0.5 points. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome, not a central scenario.
Over 1.5 goals. Our model leans to over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with 82.2% against 84.0% for the odds. The edge is -1.8 points: the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win. Our model leans to FC Dallas at 2.10: 45.2% for FC Dallas, 26.6% for the draw, 28.3% for Seattle Sounders. The odds imply 47.6%, an edge of -2.4 points: the price does not pay this scenario. FC Dallas sits at 13 points out of 15, Seattle Sounders at 11, and the xG gap FC Dallas − Seattle Sounders is 0.27. The market also sees FC Dallas as the favorite, with 24.5% on the draw.
Home draw no bet. Our model leans to FC Dallas draw no bet at 1.55, with 61.5% against 64.5% for the odds. The edge is -3.0 points: the price does not pay this scenario. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat.
Double chance 12 (no draw). Our model leans to double chance 12 at 1.28, with 73.5% against 78.1% for the odds. The edge is -4.6 points: the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes. Our model leans to this line at 1.50, with 64.4% (verified probability) against 66.7% for the odds. The edge is -2.3 points: the price does not pay this scenario. FC Dallas failed to score in 30% of its last 10 matches, Seattle Sounders in 20%.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5 goals: an open game with 4 goals or more, driven by Seattle Sounders, who score 2.2 goals per game over their last 5 matches. We accept that risk, because FC Dallas concedes 1.0 goal per game over the same stretch.
We back under 3.5 goals at 1.62, an official pick, with no staking advice. Over 2.5 goals remains a lean in our analysis.
Absences
- 🩹 N. Petkovic — Seattle Sounders · Knee Injury
- 🩹 P. Rothrock — Seattle Sounders · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 P. de La Vega — Seattle Sounders · Calf Injury
- 🩹 L. Farrington — FC Dallas · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 A. A. Julio Santos — FC Dallas · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 Geovane Jesus — FC Dallas · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Morris — Seattle Sounders · Injury
- 🩹 A. Roldan — Seattle Sounders · Injury
- 🩹 Daniel — FC Dallas · Leg Injury
- 🩹 J. Ferreira — Seattle Sounders · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 P. Kingston — Seattle Sounders · Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Seattle Sounders
STAT
FC Dallas
FC DallasHOMSeattle SoundersAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue FC Dallas – Seattle Sounders ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 02:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour FC Dallas – Seattle Sounders ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
