Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Colorado Rapids-Minnesota United score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Colorado Rapids score 1.4 goals per game and concede 2.0 over their last 5 matches. The club has 5 points from 15 over that stretch. Minnesota United score 2.0 goals per game and concede 3.4 over their last 5 matches. The club has 0 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.57: we back this total as an official pick. Our model expects 1.80 goals from Colorado Rapids and 1.46 from Minnesota United, 3.26 in all: a game with goals, but under the line. Recent xG created (3.38 for the two attacks combined) also stays below 3.5. Two data points cut against this line: Minnesota United concede 3.4 goals per game over their last 5 matches and went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10. The line shows a 60.8% probability against a 63.7% implied probability, or -2.9 points. The bet loses at 4 goals.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.62: our lean goes to this total (63.6%, against 61.7% implied, or +1.9 points). Our probability is verified across two test seasons in this league; that is neither a guarantee nor an edge over the price. Paired with under 3.5, this total wins only on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome and not a central scenario.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.20: our model leans to this line (81.9%, against 83.3% implied); the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 2.20: our model leans to Colorado Rapids, at 43.9% against 26.9% for the draw and 29.2% for Minnesota United. The implied probability is 45.5%; the price does not pay this scenario. The recent xG created gap (-0.90 for Colorado Rapids) points the other way; our model's probability prevails. The market sees Colorado Rapids as favorite.
Home draw no bet @ 1.57: our model leans to this line (60.1%, against 63.7% implied); the price does not pay this scenario. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a Colorado Rapids defeat.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.29: our model leans to this line (73.1%, against 77.5% implied); the price does not pay this scenario. It covers two outcomes out of three and loses on a draw.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.53: our model leans to this line (64.2%, against 65.4% implied); the price does not pay this scenario. Our probability is verified across two test seasons, which is not an edge. Minnesota United scored in each of their last 10 matches; Colorado Rapids failed to score in 20% of theirs.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5: an open game that reaches 4 goals. Minnesota United concede 3.4 goals per game over their last 5 matches. We accept that risk, because Colorado Rapids kept a clean sheet in 50% of their last 10 matches.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.57 as an official pick. Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals @ 1.62. No staking advice.
Absences
- 🩹 S. Abu Farkhi — Colorado Rapids · Red Card
- 🩹 A. Fadal — Colorado Rapids · Injury
- 🩹 Y. Maziz — Colorado Rapids · Injury
- 🩹 Z. Steffen — Colorado Rapids · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 R. Cannon — Colorado Rapids · Leg Injury
- 🩹 T. Ku-DiPietro — Colorado Rapids · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 D. Yapi — Colorado Rapids · Injury
- 🩹 A. Markanich — Minnesota United · Concussion
- 🩹 A. Smir — Minnesota United · Knee Injury
- 🩹 P. Stroud — Minnesota United · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 M. Diop — Colorado Rapids · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Pereyra — Minnesota United · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Minnesota United
STAT
Colorado Rapids
Colorado RapidsHOMMinnesota UnitedAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Colorado Rapids – Minnesota United ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 03:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Colorado Rapids – Minnesota United ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
