Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Chicago Fire-Philadelphia Union score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Chicago Fire scores 1.2 goals per game and concedes 1.4 over its last 5 matches. Chicago Fire has taken 7 points out of 15 in that stretch. Philadelphia Union scores 4.0 goals per game and concedes 1.0 over its last 5 matches. Philadelphia Union has collected 15 points out of 15 in that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals. Our lean is under 3.5 goals at 1.83. Our probability is 57.1%, the odds imply 54.6%: the edge is thin, +2.5 points. The bet loses at 4 goals. Our model expects 1.69 goals from Chicago Fire and 1.80 from Philadelphia Union, a total of 3.49, close to the line. Some data cuts against this read: recent xG created reaches 3.99, higher than the line, and 70% of Chicago Fire's last 10 matches and 80% of Philadelphia Union's went over 2.5 goals. That xG measures chance volume, a separate indicator; our probability is the reference.
Over 2.5 goals. Our model leans to over 2.5 goals at 1.45, with a probability of 68.4% (verified probability) against 69.0% for the odds. The edge is -0.6 points: the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals. Our model leans to over 1.5 goals at 1.13, with 84.5% against 88.5% for the odds. The edge is -4.0 points: the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away win. Our lean is a Philadelphia Union win at 2.65. Our model gives Philadelphia Union 37.9%, Chicago Fire 33.4% and the draw 28.7%; the odds imply 37.7%, a thin edge of +0.2 points. The xG gap Chicago Fire − Philadelphia Union is -1.15, pointing the same way, and Philadelphia Union sits at 15 points out of 15. The market sees Chicago Fire as a slight favorite, with 25.5% on the draw.
Away draw no bet. Our lean is Philadelphia Union draw no bet at 1.95: 53.2% for our model, 51.3% for the odds, +1.9 points. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat, however narrow.
Double chance 12 (no draw). Our model leans to double chance 12 at 1.26, with 71.3% against 79.4% for the odds. The edge is -8.1 points: the price does not pay this scenario. The line covers two outcomes out of three.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes. Our model leans to this line at 1.40, with 67.3% (verified probability) against 71.4% for the odds. The edge is -4.1 points: the price does not pay this scenario. Chicago Fire failed to score in 10% of its last 10 matches, Philadelphia Union in 0%.
The scenario that sinks the main line: Chicago Fire finds the net and takes at least a draw, something the market, which sees it as a slight favorite, does not rule out. Chicago Fire failed to score in only 10% of its last 10 matches. We accept that risk, because Chicago Fire scores 1.2 goals per game over its last 5 matches.
Our lean is a Philadelphia Union win, with under 3.5 goals and away draw no bet as neighboring reads. None of these lines is an official pick.
Absences
- 🩹 A. Anello — Philadelphia Union · Groin Injury
- 🩹 J. Elliott — Chicago Fire · Red Card
- 🩹 A. Franco — Chicago Fire · Knee Injury
- 🩹 R. Lod — Chicago Fire · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 A. Mekvabishvili — Chicago Fire · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 S. Rogers — Chicago Fire · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 D. D'Avilla — Chicago Fire · Red Card
- 🩹 R. Turdean — Chicago Fire · Inactive
- 🩹 J. Sery Larsen — Philadelphia Union · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 P. Ndinga — Philadelphia Union · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 N. Allen — Chicago Fire · International duty
- 🩹 C. Brady — Chicago Fire · International duty
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Philadelphia Union
STAT
Chicago Fire
Chicago FireHOMPhiladelphia UnionAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Chicago Fire – Philadelphia Union ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 02:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Chicago Fire – Philadelphia Union ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
