Toronto FC vs Orlando City prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Toronto FC-Orlando City score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Toronto FC scores 1.4 goals per game over its last 5 matches. It concedes 2.6 per game and has 4 points from 15. Orlando City scores 2.2 goals and concedes 2.0 per game over its last 5 matches. It has 9 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.84: our model expects 1.82 goals for Toronto FC and 1.67 for Orlando City, 3.49 in total, right at the line. The reference scenario is an open game with no clear winner, where both clubs score. Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals or more. Our lean goes to this line, with a thin edge: the model probability of 57.2% sits above the implied probability of 54.3%, a gap of +2.9 points. Some data runs against it. Toronto FC has gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches and Orlando City in 80% of its own. Recent xG created, added across the two attacks, comes to 3.35, below the line; that indicator is separate from our probability, which prevails.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.42: our model leans to this line at 68.2%, but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 70.4%). This probability is verified over two test seasons in the league; that is evidence of reliability, not an edge over the price. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 both win only at exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.13: 84.4% for our model, against 88.5% for the price. The price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 2.27: our model gives Toronto FC 39.2%, the draw 27.7% and Orlando City 33.1%. The market also sees Toronto FC as favorite and gives the draw 25.5%. Our model leans to a Toronto FC win, but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 44.1%).
Home draw no bet @ 1.71: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat, however narrow. Our model gives 54.2% and the implied probability is 58.5%: the price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.27: two outcomes out of three are covered; the line loses only on a draw. Our model gives 72.3% and the implied probability is 78.7%: the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.40: our model leans to this line at 67.6%, a probability verified over two test seasons in the league. The price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 71.4%). Toronto FC has failed to score in 30% of its last 10 matches, Orlando City in 0% of its own.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5 is a game of 4 goals or more. Toronto FC concedes 2.6 goals per game over its last 5 matches, facing an Orlando City side that scores 2.2. We accept this risk because Toronto FC scores 1.4 goals per game over the same stretch.
Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals @ 1.84, a read with no firm bet. On the other lines our model leans their way, but the price does not pay them.
Absences
- 🩹 N. Palacio — Toronto FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 W. Zimmerman — Toronto FC · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 T. Spicer — Orlando City · Foot Injury
- 🩹 G. Dorsey — Orlando City · Back Injury
- 🩹 B. Ojeda — Orlando City · Foot Injury
- 🩹 J. Osorio — Toronto FC · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 M. Pasalic — Orlando City · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 D. Mihailovic — Toronto FC · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Orlando City
STAT
Toronto FC
Toronto FCHOMOrlando CityAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Toronto FC – Orlando City ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Toronto FC – Orlando City ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
