Inter Miami vs New York City prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Inter Miami-New York City score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Inter Miami scores 1.6 goals per game over its last 5 matches. It concedes 1.8 per game and has 4 points from 15. New York City scores 1.2 goals and concedes 1.2 per game over its last 5 matches. It has 5 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 2.05: our model expects 2.09 goals for Inter Miami and 1.43 for New York City, 3.52 in total, close to the line. The reference scenario is a game where Inter Miami keeps the upper hand and New York City scores too. Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals or more. Our lean goes to this line: the model probability of 57.0% sits above the implied probability of 48.8%, a gap of +8.2 points. Some data runs against it. Inter Miami has gone over 2.5 goals in 90% of its last 10 matches, New York City in 50% of its own. On the other hand, recent xG created, added across the two attacks, comes to 2.48, below the line. That indicator is separate from our probability, which prevails.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.35: our model leans to this line at 68.5%, but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 74.1%). This probability is verified over two test seasons in the league; that is evidence of reliability, not an edge over the price. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 both win only at exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.11: 84.5% for our model, against 90.1% for the price. The price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.52: our model gives Inter Miami 51.0%, the draw 24.7% and New York City 24.3%. The market also sees Inter Miami as favorite and gives the draw 18.9%. Our model leans to an Inter Miami win, but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 65.8%).
Home draw no bet @ 1.22: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat, however narrow. Our model gives 67.7% and the implied probability is 82.0%: the price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 1X (home or draw) @ 1.17: two outcomes out of three are covered; the line loses on a New York City win. Our model gives 75.7% and the implied probability is 85.5%: the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.44: our model leans to this line at 66.0%, a probability verified over two test seasons in the league. The price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 69.4%). Inter Miami sits at 0% of matches without scoring over its last 10, New York City at 20%.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5 is a game of 4 goals or more. Inter Miami concedes 1.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches and has gone over 2.5 goals in 90% of its last 10. We accept this risk because New York City scores 1.2 goals per game over its last 5 matches.
Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals @ 2.05, a read with no firm bet. On the other lines our model leans their way, but the price does not pay them.
Absences
- 🩹 T. Allende — Inter Miami · Knee Injury
- 🩹 Y. Bright — Inter Miami · Foot Injury
- 🩹 M. Silvetti — Inter Miami · Injury
- 🩹 D. Baiera — New York City · Knee Injury
- 🩹 A. Farnos — New York City · Injury
- 🩹 M. Moralez — New York City · Knee Injury
- 🩹 K. Parks — New York City · Injury
- 🩹 K. Trewin — New York City · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 F. Mura — Inter Miami · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 M. Ilenic — New York City · Illness
- 🩹 Talles Magno — New York City · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 S. Morales — Inter Miami · Red Card
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
New York City
STAT
Inter Miami
Inter MiamiHOMNew York CityAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Inter Miami – New York City ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Inter Miami – New York City ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
