FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
FC Cincinnati-New England Revolution score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
FC Cincinnati scores 1.2 goals per game over its last 5 matches. It concedes 3.4 per game and has 2 points from 15. New England Revolution scores 1.8 goals and concedes 1.8 per game over its last 5 matches. It has 9 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.93: our model expects 1.94 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.47 for New England Revolution, 3.41 in total. The reference scenario is an open game where both clubs score, with a slight edge to FC Cincinnati. Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals or more. Our lean goes to this line: the model probability of 58.9% sits above the implied probability of 51.8%, a gap of +7.1 points. Some data runs against it. Recent xG created, added across the two attacks, comes to 3.73, above the line. FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution have each gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches. xG is a separate indicator from our probability; where they diverge, the model probability prevails.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.41: our model leans to this line at 66.4%, but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 70.9%). This probability is verified over two test seasons in the league; that is evidence of reliability, not an edge over the price. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 both win only at exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.12: 83.4% for our model, against 89.3% for the price. The price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.99: our model gives FC Cincinnati 46.8%, the draw 26.0% and New England Revolution 27.2%. The market also sees FC Cincinnati as favorite and gives the draw 24.1%. Our model leans to a FC Cincinnati win, but the price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 50.3%).
Home draw no bet @ 1.50: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat, however narrow. Our model leans to this line at 63.2%, but the price does not pay this scenario (66.7%).
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.25: two outcomes out of three are covered; the line loses only on a draw. Our model gives 74.0% and the implied probability is 80.0%: the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.40: our model leans to this line at 65.6%, a probability verified over two test seasons in the league. The price does not pay this scenario (implied probability 71.4%). FC Cincinnati has failed to score in 20% of its last 10 matches, and New England Revolution in 20% of its own.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5 is a game of 4 goals or more. FC Cincinnati concedes 3.4 goals per game over its last 5 matches, enough to hand New England Revolution three goals or more. We accept this risk because New England Revolution scores 1.8 goals per game over the same stretch.
Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals @ 1.93, a read with no firm bet. On the other lines our model leans their way, but the price does not pay them.
Absences
- 🩹 L. Campana — New England Revolution · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 M. Fofana — New England Revolution · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 J. Harrison — New England Revolution · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 A. Yusuf — New England Revolution · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 Evander — FC Cincinnati · Leg Injury
- 🩹 O. Nwobodo — FC Cincinnati · Injury
- 🩹 M. Robinson — FC Cincinnati · Injury
- 🩹 J. Martinez — FC Cincinnati · Knee Injury
- 🩹 E. Echenique — FC Cincinnati · Inactive
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
New England Revolution
STAT
FC Cincinnati
FC CincinnatiHOMNew England RevolutionAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue FC Cincinnati – New England Revolution ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour FC Cincinnati – New England Revolution ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
