DC United vs New York Red Bulls prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
DC United-New York Red Bulls score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
DC United has 6 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. The club scores 1.2 goals per game and concedes 1.2 over that stretch. New York Red Bulls has 7 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scores 0.6 goals per game and concedes 1.2.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.70: our model expects 1.45 goals from DC United and 1.36 from New York Red Bulls, 2.81 in total. The script is an open game that stops short of a fourth goal: under 3.5 loses at 4 goals. One data point cuts against the line: DC United has gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches, New York Red Bulls in 50%. The 1.70 price pays our estimate (70.4% against 58.8% implied), an edge of +11.6 pts. This is our official pick.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.50: our probability is 53.4% and the price implies 66.7%: the price does not pay this scenario. Recent xG created, 2.58 for the two attacks combined, sits close to the line. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only cash together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.16: our probability (76.1%) sits below the price's implied 86.2%. The price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.93: our model gives DC United 37.6%, the draw 28.7% and New York Red Bulls 33.6%. The market also makes DC United the favorite. Our 37.6% sits below the 51.8% implied by the price: it does not pay this scenario.
Home draw no bet @ 1.44: the stake is refunded on a draw and lost if DC United loses, even narrowly. Our 52.8% sits below the 69.4% implied by the price, which does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.25: this covers two outcomes out of three, a win for either club. Our 71.2% sits below the 80.0% implied by the price, which does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.47: DC United failed to score in 30% of its last 10 matches, New York Red Bulls in 40%. Our probability is 58.1% (verified probability), the price implies 68.0%: the price does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks the under 3.5 is a game with 4 goals or more. DC United has gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches, which makes it plausible. We accept this risk, because DC United failed to score in 30% of its last 10 matches.
We back under 3.5 goals at 1.70, our official pick. The other lines remain readings: the price does not pay them.
Absences
- 🩹 A. Marcucci — New York Red Bulls · Knee Injury
- 🩹 L. Bartlett — DC United · Red Card
- 🩹 H. Kijima — DC United · Leg Injury
- 🩹 L. Munteanu — DC United · Leg Injury
- 🩹 G. Segal — DC United · Leg Injury
- 🩹 J. Che — New York Red Bulls · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 C. Harper — New York Red Bulls · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Marshall-Rutty — New York Red Bulls · Hamstring Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
New York Red Bulls
STAT
DC United
DC UnitedHOMNew York Red BullsAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue DC United – New York Red Bulls ?
Le match se joue le 15/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour DC United – New York Red Bulls ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
