U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
U.N.A.M. - Pumas-Cruz Azul score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
This league has only recently come under our models' watch, so this analysis rests solely on our numbers (form, goals, trends), with no tracking of squads. U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores 1.0 goal per game and concedes 1.6 over its last 5 matches. The club has 5 points from 15 over that stretch. Cruz Azul scores 1.6 goals per game, concedes 1.4 and has 9 points from 15 over its last 5 matches.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.52: our model expects 1.53 goals from U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.35 from Cruz Azul, 2.87 in total. The reference scenario is an open but contained game, under the four goals that would sink this bet. Recent xG created, 2.44 for the two attacks combined, sits below the 3.5 line. Two numbers cut against it: U.N.A.M. - Pumas has gone over 2.5 goals in 60% of its last 10 matches, Cruz Azul in 70%. The price meets our publication criteria, so this is an official pick.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.67: our model leans to this scenario, but the price does not pay it. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome. The xG created, 2.44, sits below the 2.5 line.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.22: our model leans to at least two goals, but the price does not pay this scenario. The bet loses at 0 or 1 goal. U.N.A.M. - Pumas has failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches, Cruz Azul in 20%.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win @ 3.52: our model gives this result 40.7%, the draw 26.6% and Cruz Azul 32.7%. Value play: our probability stays a minority (40.7%), but the price overpays this scenario. It is a read, not a recommended bet. The market sees Cruz Azul as favorite. The tables partly point the other way: the xG gap is -0.74 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, and Cruz Azul has 9 points from 15 against 5. The model probability prevails, and these indicators diverge from it.
Home draw no bet @ 2.55: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat, even a narrow one. Our model gives this outcome 55.4%, and the lean follows the same scenario as the straight home win, with the draw taken out of the risk.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.29: this bet covers two outcomes out of three. Our model leans to a win for one of the two clubs, but the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.57: our model leans to this scenario, but the price does not pay it. Combined with Under 2.5, it would come down to 1-1. U.N.A.M. - Pumas has failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches and Cruz Azul in 20%.
The scenario that sinks Under 3.5 is a game with four goals or more. Cruz Azul scores 1.6 goals per game and has gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches. We accept this risk, because U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores 1.0 goal per game over its last 5 matches, which makes a high score less likely.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.52, an official pick, with no staking advice. A U.N.A.M. - Pumas win and the home draw no bet remain leans, not firm bets.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Cruz Azul
STAT
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - PumasHOMCruz AzulAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue U.N.A.M. - Pumas – Cruz Azul ?
Le match se joue le 12/10/2026 à 03:15 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour U.N.A.M. - Pumas – Cruz Azul ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
