US Lecce vs Bologna FC prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
US Lecce-Bologna FC score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
US Lecce took 9 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. US Lecce scores 1.2 goals and concedes 1.4 per match over that stretch. Bologna FC took just 2 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. Bologna FC scores 1.0 goal and concedes 1.6 per match over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.81: our model expects 0.80 goals from US Lecce and 1.65 from Bologna FC, 2.45 in total. The central scenario is a tight game of 2 goals or fewer. One indicator cuts against this line: the recent xG created by the two attacks combined is 2.65, above the line. Our model's probability is the reference. The share of matches with more than 2.5 goals is 40% for US Lecce and 30% for Bologna FC. Our lean goes to this line, and the edge is thin.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.39: two goals are enough. Paired with Under 2.5, this line only wins on exactly 2 goals, a narrow outcome. The analysis still points this way. US Lecce failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches, Bologna FC in 60%.
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.28: our model leans to this scenario, but the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away win @ 1.98: our model gives US Lecce 15.6%, the draw 28.3% and Bologna FC 56.1%. The market also sees Bologna FC as the favorite and gives the draw 29.4%. Our lean goes to a Bologna FC win, and the price pays our estimate.
Away draw no bet @ 1.40: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if US Lecce wins. Our probability was verified over two test seasons in this league: it is proof the probability is reliable, neither a guarantee nor an edge over the price. Our lean goes to this line.
Double chance X2 (draw or away) @ 1.25: two outcomes out of three, everything except a US Lecce win. Our lean goes to this line.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.91: alongside Under 2.5, this line only lands on a 1-1. Our model leans to this scenario, but the price does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks a Bologna FC win is a side that has stalled: 2 points from 15 over its last 5 matches and 60% of its last 10 matches without scoring. This is the weak point of this reading.
Our lean goes to away win @ 1.98, within a reading of a tight game. This is an AI lean, not an official pick.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 M. Berisha — US Lecce · Lacking Match Fitness
- 🩹 E. Holm — Bologna FC · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 J. Odgaard — Bologna FC · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 A. Dovbyk — Bologna FC · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 S. Mbangula — Bologna FC · Injury
- 🩹 N. Stulic — US Lecce · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Bologna FC
STAT
US Lecce
US LecceHOMBologna FCAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue US Lecce – Bologna FC ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 15:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour US Lecce – Bologna FC ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
