Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Sporting Kansas City-Portland Timbers score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Sporting Kansas City has 6 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. Sporting Kansas City scores 2.2 goals per game and concedes 2.4 over those 5 matches. Portland Timbers has 4 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. Portland Timbers scores 1.8 goals per game and concedes 2.2 over those 5 matches.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.90: our lean goes to this line, which loses at 4 goals. Our model expects 1.69 goals from Sporting Kansas City and 1.60 from Portland Timbers, 3.29 in total, below the line but close to it. Recent created xG adds up to 2.93, below the line. Portland Timbers went over 2.5 goals in 80% of its last 10 matches and Sporting Kansas City concedes 2.4 goals per game: that data runs against this line. Our probability is 60.9%, the odds imply 52.6%, an edge of +8.3 points.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.39: our model leans to this line (64.3%, verified probability), but the price does not pay this scenario: it implies 71.9%, or -7.6 points. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.12: our model leans to this line, with 82.2% for our probability and 89.3% implied by the odds. The price does not pay this scenario (-7.1 points).
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 2.43: our model leans to Sporting Kansas City (37.9%, against 41.2% implied by the odds, -3.3 points); the price does not pay this scenario. Our model gives Portland Timbers 34.0% and the draw 28.1%. The market sees Sporting Kansas City as the favorite.
Home draw no bet @ 1.84: our model leans to Sporting Kansas City with the stake returned on a draw and lost on any defeat, even a narrow one. The price does not pay this scenario: 52.7% for our probability, 54.3% for the odds, -1.6 points.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.25: our model leans to a win for either club, two outcomes out of three. The price does not pay this scenario: 71.9% for our probability, 80.0% for the odds, -8.1 points.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.36: our model leans to this line (65.0%, verified probability), but the price does not pay this scenario: it implies 73.5%, or -8.5 points. Sporting Kansas City failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches, Portland Timbers in 10%. Clean sheets are rare on both sides: Sporting Kansas City kept one in 10% of its last 10 matches, Portland Timbers in 0%.
Portland Timbers scores 1.8 goals and concedes 2.2 per game, and 80% of its last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals: a 4-goal match would sink under 3.5. We accept this risk because Sporting Kansas City failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches.
Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals @ 1.90, with no firm bet and without staking advice. The other lines remain readings that the price does not pay.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 H. Sulte — Portland Timbers · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 O. Blorian — Sporting Kansas City · Chest Injury
- 🩹 Capita — Sporting Kansas City · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 J. Davis — Sporting Kansas City · Injury
- 🩹 Diego Borges — Sporting Kansas City · Groin Injury
- 🩹 L. Johnsen — Sporting Kansas City · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 M. Mosquera — Sporting Kansas City · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 O. Wolff — Sporting Kansas City · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 A. Bonetig — Portland Timbers · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 B. Bye — Portland Timbers · Leg Injury
- 🩹 J. Mosquera — Portland Timbers · Foot Injury
- 🩹 F. Surman — Portland Timbers · Knee Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Portland Timbers
STAT
Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas CityHOMPortland TimbersAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Sporting Kansas City – Portland Timbers ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 02:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Sporting Kansas City – Portland Timbers ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
