SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
SC Freiburg-Schalke 04 score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
SC Freiburg sit 3rd in the table. The club has 12 points from 15 over its last 5 matches, scoring 3.2 goals and conceding 1.0 per game. Schalke 04 are 11th. The club has 5 points from 15 over its last 5 matches, scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 2.0 per game.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.69: our lean goes to this line. Our model expects 2.02 goals for SC Freiburg and 1.04 for Schalke 04, 3.05 in total. The tables point the same way: SC Freiburg went over 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 10 matches, Schalke 04 in 90%. Recent xG created, 3.10 for the two attacks added together, sits above the line. Two data points cut against it: SC Freiburg concede 1.0 goal per game over their last 5 matches, and Schalke 04 failed to score in 75% of their last 10. Our probability is 59.4%, against 59.2% for the odds: the edge is thin (+0.2 pts). It is verified over two test seasons in this league, which proves it is reliable without being an edge over the odds.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.20: our model leans to this line, which loses with 0 or 1 goal, but the price does not pay this scenario (81.3% against 83.3%).
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.57: our model leans to this line, which loses at 4 goals, but the price does not pay this scenario (60.4% against 63.7%). Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together with exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home draw no bet @ 1.27: our lean goes to this line. The stake is returned on a draw and lost if SC Freiburg lose. Our model gives 56.9% to SC Freiburg, 28.4% to the draw and 14.8% to Schalke 04. The market, margin removed, also makes SC Freiburg favorite (58.0%). Our probability is 79.4%, against 78.7% for the odds: the edge is thin (+0.7 pts).
Double chance 1X @ 1.19: our lean goes to this line, which covers a SC Freiburg win and the draw, and loses only if Schalke 04 win. Our probability is 85.2%, against 84.0% for the odds: the edge is thin (+1.2 pts).
SC Freiburg win @ 1.71: our model leans to this outcome, but the price does not pay this scenario (56.9% against 58.5%). This probability is verified over two test seasons in this league; it is proof of reliability, not an edge over the odds.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.63: our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario (58.5% against 61.3%). SC Freiburg have scored in each of their last 10 matches, while Schalke 04 went blank in 75% of theirs.
The scenario that sinks over 2.5 is a narrow SC Freiburg win, something like 2-0, with Schalke 04 blanked as in 75% of their last 10 matches. We accept that risk because Schalke 04 played 90% of their last 10 matches with more than 2.5 goals.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals at 1.69, with home draw no bet and double chance 1X as complementary readings; the odds do not pay the other lines. No firm bet, no staking advice.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 B. Ogbus — SC Freiburg · Injury
- 🩹 B. Yilmaz — SC Freiburg · Knock
- 🩹 D. Ljubicic — Schalke 04 · Knee Injury
- 🩹 T. Becker — Schalke 04 · Ankle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Schalke 04
STAT
SC Freiburg
SC FreiburgHOMSchalke 04AWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue SC Freiburg – Schalke 04 ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 17:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour SC Freiburg – Schalke 04 ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
