Racing Santander vs Valencia prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Racing Santander-Valencia score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Racing Santander has 6 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scores 1.8 goals per game and concedes 2.8 over that stretch. Valencia has 3 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scores 0.4 goals per game and concedes 2.0.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals: our model expects 1.72 goals from Racing Santander and 1.47 from Valencia, which points to an open game. Our lean is over 2.5 goals @ 1.74: the price pays our 61.9% estimate, against 57.5% implied. Racing Santander has seen more than 2.5 goals in 83% of its last 10 matches, Valencia in 40%. Recent xG created, at 2.01 for the two attacks combined, sits below that line, so the model probability stands.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to this scenario at 80.4%, but the 1.22 price does not pay it (implied probability 82.0%). No edge on this line.
Under 3.5 goals: our model leans to this line at 65.4% (verified probability). The 1.52 price does not pay it, with a gap of -0.4 points. An Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals; with 1.72 and 1.47 expected goals, the central scenario sits around 3 goals.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win: our model gives Racing Santander 42.3%, the draw 26.3% and Valencia 31.4%. Our lean is a Racing Santander win @ 2.42, with a thin edge of +1.0 point. The market also sees Racing Santander as favorite, with 3.55 on the draw. Value bet: our probability stays a minority one (42.3%), but the price overpays this scenario, offered as a read, not a recommended bet.
Home draw no bet: at 1.69, the price does not pay this scenario (57.4% for our model, 59.2% implied). The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a Valencia win.
Double chance 12 (no draw): this line covers two outcomes out of three, a win for either side. Our model leans to it at 73.7% (verified probability), but the 1.32 price does not pay it.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: Racing Santander has failed to score in 17% of its last 10 matches, Valencia in 40%. Racing Santander has never kept a clean sheet over that stretch (0%), Valencia has in 30% of its matches. Our lean is this line @ 1.57, with 66.4% for our model (verified probability) against 63.7% implied. The edge is thin.
The scenario that sinks our leans is a closed game in which Valencia keeps a clean sheet, as in 30% of its last 10 matches, which would defeat both over 2.5 and both teams to score. Valencia scores just 0.4 goals per game over its last 5 matches. We accept this risk, because Racing Santander concedes 2.8 goals per game over the same stretch, which makes a Valencia blank unlikely.
No line here is an official pick. Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals, both teams to score: yes, and a Racing Santander win, with a thin edge on each.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 S. Eriksson — Racing Santander · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 S. Canos — Valencia · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Copete — Valencia · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 D. Lopez — Valencia · Knee Injury
- 🩹 U. Sadiq — Valencia · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 A. Danjuma — Valencia · Injury
- 🩹 M. Diakhaby — Valencia · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 D. Foulquier — Valencia · Injury
- 🩹 C. Tarrega — Valencia · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 L. Rioja — Valencia · Heel Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Valencia
STAT
Racing Santander
Racing SantanderHOMValenciaAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Racing Santander – Valencia ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 21:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Racing Santander – Valencia ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
