Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo prediction: AI analysis & odds

GAME CONTEXT

Minnesota United has 1 point from 15 over its last 5 matches. Minnesota United scores 2.4 goals per game and concedes 3.4 over those 5 matches. Houston Dynamo has 6 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. Houston Dynamo scores 0.8 goals per game and concedes 0.8 over those 5 matches.

TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)

Under 3.5 goals @ 1.50: we back this line, which loses at 4 goals. Our model expects 1.65 goals from Minnesota United and 1.45 from Houston Dynamo, 3.09 in total, below the line. Recent created xG adds up to 3.11, also below the line. Minnesota United concedes 3.4 goals per game and 70% of its last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals: that data runs against this line. Our probability is 66.5%, the odds imply 66.7%, an edge of -0.2 points.

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70: our lean goes to this line, with a model probability of 60.0% (verified probability) against 58.8% implied by the odds, a thin edge of +1.2 points. Recent created xG (3.11) sits above the line. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals: a narrow outcome, never the central scenario. Only 30% of Houston Dynamo's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals, a figure that runs against this line.

Over 1.5 goals @ 1.23: our model leans to this line, with 79.9% for our probability and 81.3% implied by the odds. The price does not pay this scenario (-1.4 points).

1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)

Home win @ 2.12: our model leans to Minnesota United (40.5%, against 47.2% implied by the odds, -6.7 points); the price does not pay this scenario. Our model gives Houston Dynamo 31.7% and the draw 27.8%. The market also sees Minnesota United as the favorite. Minnesota United took just 1 point from 15 over its last 5 matches, a figure that runs against this read.

Home draw no bet @ 1.57: our model leans to Minnesota United with the stake returned on a draw and lost on any defeat, even a narrow one. The price does not pay this scenario: 56.0% for our probability, 63.7% for the odds, -7.7 points.

Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.29: our model leans to a win for either club, two outcomes out of three. The price does not pay this scenario: 72.2% for our probability, 77.5% for the odds, -5.3 points.

OTHER MARKETS

Both teams to score: yes @ 1.57: our model leans to this line (62.1%, verified probability, against 63.7% implied, -1.6 points); the price does not pay this scenario. Minnesota United failed to score in 10% of its last 10 matches, Houston Dynamo in 30%. Houston Dynamo kept a clean sheet in 60% of its last 10 matches, a figure that runs against this line.