FC Koln vs Borussia Monchengladbach prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
FC Koln-Borussia Monchengladbach score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
GAME CONTEXT
FC Koln sit 13th in the table. The club has 4 points from 15 over its last 5 matches, scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 3.0 per game. Borussia Monchengladbach are 18th. The club has 3 points from 15 over its last 5 matches, scoring 1.6 goals and conceding 3.0 per game.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.53: our lean goes to this line. Our model expects an open game: 1.88 goals for FC Koln, 1.51 for Borussia Monchengladbach, 3.40 in total. The tables point the same way: FC Koln went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches, Borussia Monchengladbach in 60%. Recent xG created, 2.79 for the two attacks added together, sits above the line. Borussia Monchengladbach failed to score in 50% of their last 10 matches, which cuts against this scenario. Our probability is 66.2%, against 65.4% for the odds: the edge is thin (+0.8 pts). It is verified over two test seasons in this league, which proves it is reliable without being an edge over the odds.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.16: our lean goes to this line, which loses only with 0 or 1 goal. Our probability of 86.4% is close to the 86.2% of the odds, so the edge is thin (+0.2 pts).
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.74: our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario (54.5% against 57.5%). It loses at 4 goals. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together with exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome. The 3.0 goals conceded per game by each club over 5 matches weigh against this line.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
FC Koln win @ 2.10: our model gives 44.4% to FC Koln, 26.7% to the draw and 28.9% to Borussia Monchengladbach. The market, margin removed, also makes FC Koln favorite (46.0%). Our model leans to this outcome, but the price does not pay this scenario (44.4% against 47.6%).
Home draw no bet @ 1.55: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if FC Koln lose. Our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario (60.5% against 64.5%).
Double chance 12 @ 1.27: two outcomes out of three are covered, and the line loses on a draw. Our model leans to it, but the price does not pay this scenario (73.3% against 78.7%).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.45: our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario (67.3% against 69.0%). FC Koln have scored in each of their last 10 matches and have never kept a clean sheet. Borussia Monchengladbach kept a clean sheet in 30% of their last 10 matches.
The scenario that sinks over 2.5 is a tight game with one or two goals, with Borussia Monchengladbach shut out, as in 50% of their last 10 matches. We accept that risk because this club scores 1.6 goals per game over its last 5 matches, and FC Koln have never kept a clean sheet in their last 10.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals at 1.53, with over 1.5 goals as backup; the odds do not pay the other lines. No firm bet, no staking advice.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 R. Ache — FC Koln · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 K. Itakura — Borussia Monchengladbach · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 T. Kleindienst — Borussia Monchengladbach · Injury
- 🩹 T. Dallinga — FC Koln · Knee Injury
- 🩹 T. Hubers — FC Koln · Knee Injury
- 🩹 A. Castro-Montes — FC Koln · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Castrop — Borussia Monchengladbach · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 F. Honorat — Borussia Monchengladbach · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 N. Kuhn — Borussia Monchengladbach · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 E. Leopold — Borussia Monchengladbach · Knee Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Borussia Monchengladbach
STAT
FC Koln
FC KolnHOMBorussia MonchengladbachAWYHead-to-Head
Unlock all picks and the full analysis
The verdict on every market, the full written analysis, line-ups, injuries, referee and odds from 11 bookmakers — no commitment.
Secure Stripe payment — Analysis independent from the betting market
Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue FC Koln – Borussia Monchengladbach ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 15:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour FC Koln – Borussia Monchengladbach ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
