Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Colorado Rapids-San Jose Earthquakes score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Colorado Rapids score 1.2 goals per game and concede 1.4 over their last 5 matches. Colorado Rapids have taken 8 points from 15 in that stretch. San Jose Earthquakes score 1.4 goals per game and concede 1.0 over their last 5 matches. San Jose Earthquakes have taken 9 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals: We back under 3.5 goals at 1.62. Our probability is 61.7%, equal to the implied probability of the odds, so the edge is nil. Our model expects 1.75 goals from Colorado Rapids and 1.39 from San Jose Earthquakes: an open game that still stays below 4 goals, the point where this bet loses. Recent xG created, 2.50 for the two attacks added together, sits below our model's expected goals; the model probability prevails. San Jose Earthquakes went over 2.5 goals in 50% of their last 10 matches, a lower threshold than the one in this bet.
Over 2.5 goals: Our model leans to over 2.5 goals at 1.57. Our probability is 61.0%, verified over two test seasons in this league, against 63.7% implied: the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals: Our model leans to over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our probability is 80.4%, against 84.7% implied: the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Colorado Rapids to win: Our model leans to a Colorado Rapids win at 1.98, with 44.6% against 50.5% implied. The price does not pay this scenario. The reference odds make Colorado Rapids the favorite.
Colorado Rapids draw no bet: Our model leans to this line at 1.47, with 60.9% against 68.0% implied. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat. The price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw): Our model leans to this line at 1.26, with 73.2% against 79.4% implied. It covers two outcomes out of three and loses on a draw. The price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: Our model leans to this line at 1.50. Our probability is 62.3%, verified over two test seasons in this league, against 66.7% implied: the price does not pay this scenario. Colorado Rapids failed to score in 30% of their last 10 matches, San Jose Earthquakes in 10%.
The scenario that sinks the under 3.5 is an open game with 4 goals or more: Colorado Rapids concede 1.4 goals per game over their last 5 matches. We accept that risk, because Colorado Rapids kept a clean sheet in 50% of their last 10 matches.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.62, an official pick. The other lines remain model leans with no edge on the price.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 N. Tsakiris — San Jose Earthquakes · Upper-Body Injury
- 🩹 A. Fadal — Colorado Rapids · Injury
- 🩹 J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza — San Jose Earthquakes · Injury
- 🩹 D. Johnson — San Jose Earthquakes · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 J. Skahan — San Jose Earthquakes · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 T. Ku-DiPietro — Colorado Rapids · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 Z. Steffen — Colorado Rapids · Shoulder Injury
- 🩹 M. Diop — Colorado Rapids · Knee Injury
- 🩹 Y. Maziz — Colorado Rapids · Injury
- 🩹 D. Jones — San Jose Earthquakes · Achilles Tendon Injury
- 🩹 R. Roberts — San Jose Earthquakes · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 N. Adimabua — San Jose Earthquakes · Hernia
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
San Jose Earthquakes
STAT
Colorado Rapids
Colorado RapidsHOMSan Jose EarthquakesAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Colorado Rapids – San Jose Earthquakes ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 03:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Colorado Rapids – San Jose Earthquakes ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
