CF Pachuca vs Necaxa prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
CF Pachuca-Necaxa score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
This league has only recently been tracked by our models: this analysis rests solely on our numbers (form, goals, trends), with no tracking of squads. CF Pachuca scores 1.8 goals per game and concedes 0.8 over its last 5 matches, for 9 points out of 15. Necaxa scores 0.8 goals per game and concedes 1.8 over its last 5 matches, for 2 points out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.50: we back this line, which only loses at 4 goals or more. Our model expects 1.92 goals from CF Pachuca and 0.97 from Necaxa, a total of 2.89. The line's own figures show a probability of 65.0% against an implied 66.7%, an edge of -1.7 points: worth keeping in mind. Recent xG created, 2.06 combined, sits below the 3.5 line. On the other side, 70% of Necaxa's last 10 matches and 50% of CF Pachuca's went over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.67: our model leans to this scenario (55.1%), but the price does not pay it. Created xG, 2.06, sits under this line. Paired with under 3.5, over 2.5 only wins on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.22: our model leans to this scenario (77.1%), but the price does not pay it.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
CF Pachuca win @ 1.73: our lean goes to this outcome. Our model gives CF Pachuca 59.6%, the draw 21.8% and Necaxa 18.6%, with 1.92 expected goals against 0.97. The tables point the same way: CF Pachuca has 9 points out of 15 and Necaxa 2. The recent xG gap (-0.08) points the other way, but our model's probability prevails. The market also sees CF Pachuca as favorite.
Home draw no bet @ 1.31: our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay it. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a CF Pachuca defeat, even a narrow one.
Double chance 1X @ 1.22: our model leans to this line, which covers two outcomes out of three, but the price does not pay it.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.67: our model leans to this scenario (57.0%), but the price does not pay it. Necaxa failed to score in 10% of its last 10 matches, CF Pachuca in 20%. Necaxa has never kept a clean sheet over that stretch, which fits the scenario.
Under 3.5 loses in a game of 4 goals or more: 70% of Necaxa's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals and the club concedes 1.8 goals per game. We accept that risk, because Necaxa scores just 0.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches, which limits its share in a high scoreline.
We back under 3.5 goals at 1.50. The CF Pachuca win remains a lean, with no firm bet.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Necaxa
STAT
CF Pachuca
CF PachucaHOMNecaxaAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue CF Pachuca – Necaxa ?
Le match se joue le 12/10/2026 à 01:10 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour CF Pachuca – Necaxa ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
