Cagliari Calcio vs Juventus prediction: AI analysis & odds

GAME CONTEXT

Cagliari Calcio has 12 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. The club scores 1.2 goals per game over that stretch and concedes 0.6. Juventus has 8 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. The club scores 1.6 goals per game and concedes 1.2.

TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)

Under 2.5 goals: our lean goes to this line at 1.88. Our model expects 0.59 goals from Cagliari Calcio and 1.95 from Juventus, 2.54 in total; an under 2.5 loses at 3 goals. Our probability is 53.3% against 53.2% implied by the odds: the edge is thin. Recent xG created by the two attacks combined, 3.32, sits above this line; it diverges from our read, and the model probability prevails. 50% of Cagliari Calcio's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals, against 20% for Juventus.

Under 3.5 goals: our lean goes to this line at 1.32, with 76.2% against 75.8% implied. The edge is thin. An under 3.5 loses at 4 goals, and recent xG created, 3.32, stays below this line. Cagliari Calcio concedes 0.6 goals per game over its last 5.

Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to this line at 1.34, with 73.3% against 74.6% implied. The price does not pay this scenario. An over 1.5 only loses at 0 or 1 goals.

1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)

Away win: our lean goes to a Juventus win at 1.62. Our model gives it 69.6% against 61.7% implied by the odds, an edge of +7.9 pts. It puts Cagliari Calcio at 10.1% and the draw at 20.3%, with 1.95 expected goals for Juventus against 0.59. Reference odds also make Juventus the favorite, at 1.58.

Away draw no bet: our lean goes to Juventus at 1.20. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat, however narrow. Our probability is 87.3% against 83.3% implied, +4.0 pts.

Double chance X2 (draw or away): our lean goes to this line at 1.15. It covers two outcomes out of three and only loses if Cagliari Calcio wins. Our probability is 89.9% against 87.0% implied, +2.9 pts.

OTHER MARKETS

Both teams to score: no: our model leans to this line at 1.80, with 53.2% against 55.6% implied. The price does not pay this scenario. This bet wins if either side is shut out, 0-0 included. Cagliari Calcio failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches, and Juventus kept a clean sheet in 50% of its own.