Austin FC vs Nashville SC prediction: AI analysis & odds

GAME CONTEXT

Austin FC has 9 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. Austin FC scores 1.2 goals per game and concedes 0.8 over those 5 matches. Nashville SC has 8 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. Nashville SC scores 2.0 goals per game and concedes 0.8 over those 5 matches.

TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)

Under 3.5 goals @ 1.45: we back this line, which loses at 4 goals. Our model expects 1.59 goals from Austin FC and 1.52 from Nashville SC, 3.11 in total, below the line. Recent created xG adds up to 2.70, also below the line. Nashville SC scores 2.0 goals per game and 70% of its last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals: that data runs against this line. Our probability is 61.7%, the odds imply 69.0%, an edge of -7.3 points.

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75: our lean goes to this line, with a model probability of 60.5% (verified probability) against 57.1% implied by the odds, a thin edge of +3.4 points. Recent created xG (2.70) sits above the line. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals: a narrow outcome, never the central scenario. Austin FC scores 1.2 goals per game, a lower figure than Nashville SC's.

Over 1.5 goals @ 1.25: our lean goes to this line, but our probability (80.2%) and the one implied by the odds (80.0%) are close. The edge is +0.2 points, very thin.

1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)

Home win @ 4.00: a value-style read: our probability stays a minority (37.4%), but the odds overpay this scenario, with 25.0% implied and +12.4 points. This is a reading, not a recommended bet. Our model gives Nashville SC 34.2% and the draw 28.4%. The market sees Nashville SC as the favorite: our read goes the other way.

Home draw no bet @ 2.88: our lean goes to Austin FC with the stake returned on a draw and lost on any defeat, even a narrow one. Our probability is 52.2%, the odds imply 34.7%, or +17.5 points.

Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.29: our model leans to a win for either club, two outcomes out of three. The price does not pay this scenario: 71.6% for our probability, 77.5% for the odds, -5.9 points.

OTHER MARKETS

Both teams to score: yes @ 1.67: our lean goes to this line (62.6%, verified probability, against 59.9% implied, +2.7 points). Austin FC failed to score in 30% of its last 10 matches, Nashville SC in 20%. Nashville SC kept a clean sheet in 40% of its last 10 matches, a figure that runs against this line.