Union Berlin vs Elversberg prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Union Berlin-Elversberg score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Union Berlin sit 17th in the table and have 7 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. Union Berlin score 2.2 goals per game and concede 2.2 over that stretch. Elversberg sit 7th with 12 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. Elversberg score 3.0 goals per game and concede 2.4 over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.58: our model expects 1.73 goals from Union Berlin and 1.57 from Elversberg, 3.30 in total. The reference script is an open game where both attacks find a way through. Union Berlin saw more than 2.5 goals in 90% of their last 10 matches, Elversberg in 100%. Recent xG created, 3.52 for the two attacks, points the same way. The model probability is 64.4%, verified, against 63.3% implied by the price: the edge is thin (+1.1 pts).
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.18: the line only loses with 1 goal or fewer. Our model gives 85.4% against 84.7%, a thin edge (+0.7 pt).
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.63: our model leans this way (56.8%), but the price does not pay this scenario (61.3%, -4.5 pts). Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome rather than a central script. Recent xG created (3.52) also sits above this line.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Union Berlin win @ 2.38: our model gives Union Berlin 39.3%, the draw 28.3% and Elversberg 32.4%. The market also has Union Berlin slightly ahead. The price does not pay this scenario (42.0%, -2.7 pts).
Home draw no bet @ 1.75: stake returned on a draw, lost if Elversberg win. Our model gives 54.8% against 57.1%; the price does not pay (-2.3 pts).
Double chance 12 @ 1.29: two outcomes out of three, a win for either side; only the draw loses it. Our model gives 71.7% against 77.5%: the price does not pay (-5.8 pts).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.50: our model leans this way (66.2%), but the price does not pay (66.7%, -0.5 pt). Union Berlin failed to score in 50% of their last 10 matches, Elversberg in 25%.
The script that sinks over 2.5: Union Berlin stay blank, as in 50% of their last 10 matches, and the game ends on a short scoreline. We accept that risk, because Union Berlin score 2.2 goals per game over their last 5 matches.
Our lean is over 2.5 goals, with over 1.5 goals as the companion line. The straight result, draw no bet, double chance and under 3.5 are not paid by the price; no staking advice.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 M. Friedrich — Union Berlin · Knock
- 🩹 A. Markgraf — Union Berlin · Knee Injury
- 🩹 O. Burke — Union Berlin · Achilles Tendon Injury
- 🩹 A. Ilic — Union Berlin · Illness
- 🩹 J. Juranovic — Union Berlin · Achilles Tendon Injury
- 🩹 S. Nsoki — Union Berlin · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Elversberg
STAT
Union Berlin
Union BerlinHOMElversbergAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Union Berlin – Elversberg ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 15:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Union Berlin – Elversberg ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
