Tigres UANL vs Toluca prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Tigres UANL-Toluca score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
This league has only recently been tracked by our models: this analysis relies solely on our numbers (form, goals, trends), with no squad tracking. Tigres UANL scores 0.6 goals per game and concedes 0.6 over its last 5 matches, for 6 points out of 15. Toluca scores 2.8 goals per game and concedes 1.2 over its last 5 matches, for 12 points out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals: we back this line at 1.47. Our model expects 1.54 goals from Tigres UANL and 1.33 from Toluca, a total of 2.86, below the line. Our probability of 68.1% sits barely above the implied probability of 68.0%: the edge is thin. Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals. Some numbers cut against this read: Toluca scores 2.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches, 60% of its last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals, and the recent xG created by both attacks added together comes to 3.49, close to the line. Our model probability prevails over those xG.
Over 2.5 goals: our model leans to this line at 1.72, but the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to this line at 1.24, but the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
1X2 home win: our lean goes to Tigres UANL at 3.08. Value play: our probability stays a minority one (41.3%), but the price overpays this scenario. It is a read, not a recommended bet. The market sees Toluca as favorite.
Home draw no bet: our lean goes to Tigres UANL at 2.15. A draw returns the stake, a defeat loses it. Our probability is 56.5%, against 46.5% implied by the price.
Double chance 12 (no draw): our model leans to this line at 1.30, but the price does not pay this scenario. It covers two outcomes out of three.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line at 1.62, but the price does not pay this scenario. Tigres UANL failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches, Toluca in 20%.
The scenario that sinks Under 3.5: Toluca keeps up its output and the game reaches 4 goals, since it scores 2.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches. We accept this risk, because Tigres UANL scores 0.6 goals per game and concedes 0.6 over its last 5 matches.
We back under 3.5 goals at 1.47, with a thin edge, no staking advice. Our lean also goes to a Tigres UANL win at 3.08 and the draw no bet at 2.15.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Toluca
STAT
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANLHOMTolucaAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Tigres UANL – Toluca ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 05:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Tigres UANL – Toluca ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
