SSC Napoli vs Frosinone Calcio prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
SSC Napoli-Frosinone Calcio score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
SSC Napoli scores 1.4 goals per match and concedes 1.0 over its last 5 matches. The club has 9 points from 15 over that stretch. Frosinone Calcio scores 1.4 goals per match and concedes 1.0 over its last 5 matches. It has 7 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 1.5 goals: our model expects 2.25 goals from SSC Napoli and 0.97 from Frosinone Calcio, a total of 3.22. Our lean is over 1.5 goals @ 1.17: 86.8% for our model against 85.5% for the odds, a thin edge. The line wins from 2 goals. Recent xG created by the two attacks added together reach 2.84, above the line, which points the same way.
Over 2.5 goals: our model leans to over 2.5 goals @ 1.53, but the price does not pay this scenario (62.6% against 65.4%).
Under 3.5 goals: our model leans to under 3.5 goals @ 1.72, but the price does not pay this scenario (56.5% against 58.1%).
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win: the market makes SSC Napoli the favorite, as does our model: 65.0% for SSC Napoli, 21.8% for the draw, 13.2% for Frosinone Calcio. Our model leans to an SSC Napoli win @ 1.49, but the price does not pay this scenario (65.0% against 67.1%).
Home draw no bet: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on a Frosinone Calcio win. Our model leans to this line @ 1.17, but the price does not pay this scenario (83.1% against 85.5%).
Double chance 1X: this line covers an SSC Napoli win or the draw, two outcomes out of three. Our model leans to 1X @ 1.13, but the price does not pay this scenario (86.8% against 88.5%).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our lean is this line @ 1.65, at 61.0% for our model against 60.6% for the odds, a thin edge. Some data cuts against this read. SSC Napoli kept a clean sheet in 60% of its last 10 matches, and Frosinone Calcio failed to score in 50% of theirs. Our model's reference scenario still has Frosinone Calcio getting on the board, with 0.97 goals expected.
The scenario that sinks both teams to score: yes is a clean sheet for SSC Napoli: the club did not concede in 60% of its last 10 matches, and Frosinone Calcio failed to score in 50% of theirs. We accept this risk because Frosinone Calcio scores 1.4 goals per match over its last 5 matches.
Our lean is both teams to score: yes @ 1.65, with a thin edge. Our lean also goes to over 1.5 goals @ 1.17. This is not an official pick.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 A. Buongiorno — SSC Napoli · Jumpers Knee
- 🩹 A. Buongiorno — SSC Napoli · Jumpers Knee
- 🩹 A. Buongiorno — SSC Napoli · Jumpers Knee
- 🩹 A. Buongiorno — SSC Napoli · Jumpers Knee
- 🩹 A. Buongiorno — SSC Napoli · Jumpers Knee
- 🩹 A. Buongiorno — SSC Napoli · Jumpers Knee
- 🩹 C. Favasuli — SSC Napoli · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 A. Vergara — SSC Napoli · Calf Injury
- 🩹 S. McTominay — SSC Napoli · Heart Problems
- 🩹 Alisson Santos — SSC Napoli · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 F. Anguissa — SSC Napoli · Groin Injury
- 🩹 Giovane — SSC Napoli · Groin Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Frosinone Calcio
STAT
SSC Napoli
SSC NapoliHOMFrosinone CalcioAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue SSC Napoli – Frosinone Calcio ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 20:45 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour SSC Napoli – Frosinone Calcio ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
