Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction: AI analysis & odds

GAME CONTEXT

Real Madrid scores 3.0 goals per game over its last 5 matches. It concedes 1.0 per game and has 12 points from 15. Villarreal scores 1.6 goals per game over its last 5 matches. It concedes 1.8 per game and has 4 points from 15.

TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.31: our model expects 3.12 goals from Real Madrid and 1.01 from Villarreal, 4.13 in total. The reference scenario is an open game, well above the line. Recent created xG, 5.30 for the two attacks added together, points the same way. Real Madrid has gone over 2.5 goals in 60% of its last 10 matches, Villarreal in 70%. Our lean goes to this line: the price pays our estimate, with an edge of +1.8 pts.

Over 3.5 goals @ 1.83: the line loses at 3 goals and wins from 4. Our estimate and the implied probability of the price are almost identical: the edge is thin, +0.3 pts. The expected total of 4.13 goals stays close to this line, which makes it a more fragile read than the previous one.

Over 1.5 goals @ 1.09: our model leans to this scenario, but the price does not pay it: the implied probability is higher than ours.

1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)

Real Madrid win @ 1.37: our model gives Real Madrid 78.8%, the draw 12.5% and Villarreal 8.7%. The market also sees Real Madrid as favorite and gives the draw 15.6%. The tables point the same way: Real Madrid has taken 12 points from 15 and scores 3.0 goals per game over its last 5 matches, while Villarreal has taken 4 from 15. The edge on this line is +5.8 pts. Our lean goes to this outcome.

Real Madrid draw no bet @ 1.15: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on a Real Madrid defeat, however narrow. Our model gives the draw 12.5%, the outcome this bet neutralizes. The edge is +3.0 pts.

Double chance 1X @ 1.12: this line covers two outcomes out of three, a Real Madrid win or a draw. Only a Villarreal win beats it, an outcome at 8.7% for our model. The edge is +2.0 pts.

OTHER MARKETS

Both teams to score: yes @ 1.50: the line needs a Villarreal goal, and our model expects 1.01 from them. Villarreal has failed to score in 20% of its last 10 matches and scores 1.6 goals per game over its last 5. Real Madrid has kept a clean sheet in 30% of its last 10 matches, which leaves an outcome with no goal conceded, contrary to the line. Our probability on this market was verified over two test seasons, which attests to its reliability without being an edge over the price. The edge is +2.4 pts.