Puebla vs Leon prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Puebla-Leon score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
This league has only recently been tracked by our models: this analysis relies solely on our numbers (form, goals, trends), with no squad tracking. Puebla scores 1.0 goal per game and concedes 1.2 over its last 5 matches, for 7 points out of 15. Leon scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1.0 over its last 5 matches, for 8 points out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals: our lean goes to this line at 1.95. Our model expects 1.52 goals from Puebla and 1.35 from Leon, a total of 2.86: an open game, without excess. At this price, our probability of 54.6% sits above the implied probability of 51.3%. Two numbers cut against this read: the recent xG created by both attacks added together comes to 2.22, below the line, and 40% of the last 10 matches of both Puebla and Leon went over 2.5 goals. Our model probability prevails over those xG.
Over 1.5 goals: our lean goes to this line at 1.31. The edge is thin (+0.7 pts): the price stays close to our 77.0% estimate.
Under 3.5 goals: our model leans to this line at 1.36, but the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and Under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
1X2 home win: our lean goes to Puebla at 3.00. Value play: our probability stays a minority one (40.2%), but the price overpays this scenario. It is a read, not a recommended bet. The market sees Leon as favorite, and the xG gap Puebla − Leon (-0.78) points the same way. Our model probability prevails.
Home draw no bet: our lean goes to Puebla at 2.05. A draw returns the stake, a defeat loses it. Our probability is 55.2%, against 48.8% implied by the price.
Double chance 12 (no draw): our model leans to this line at 1.33, but the price does not pay this scenario. It covers two outcomes out of three.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line at 1.75. Its probability of 57.0% is nearly identical to the implied probability of 57.1%: the price does not pay this scenario. Puebla failed to score in 20% of its last 10 matches, Leon in 10%.
The scenario that sinks Puebla: Leon takes control, as the xG gap Puebla − Leon (-0.78) suggests. Leon also has 8 points out of 15 against 7 for Puebla. This is the weak point of this read.
Our lean goes to a Puebla win at 3.00, with the draw no bet at 2.05 as the cautious version of the same read. No line reaches official pick status.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Leon
STAT
Puebla
PueblaHOMLeonAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Puebla – Leon ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 03:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Puebla – Leon ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
