Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Philadelphia Union-Real Salt Lake score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Philadelphia Union scores 3.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches. Philadelphia Union has conceded 0.8 per game over that stretch and has taken 15 points out of 15. Real Salt Lake scores 0.6 goals per game over its last 5 matches and concedes 2.2. Real Salt Lake has taken just 1 point out of 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.87: our model expects 2.31 goals from Philadelphia Union and 1.10 from Real Salt Lake, 3.41 in total. The baseline scenario is a Philadelphia Union win in an open game that stops at three goals or fewer. An Under 3.5 loses at 4 goals. Some data runs against this line: the recent xG created by the two attacks combined reach 3.90, above 3.5, and 70% of Philadelphia Union's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. That volume indicator is separate from our probability, which prevails. Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals: the price pays our estimate.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.40: the 66.3% probability is verified over two test seasons, which speaks to its reliability but gives no edge over the price. Our model leans to this scenario, but the price does not pay it. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 win together only with exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.13: our model leans to this line, which needs at least two goals. The price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Philadelphia Union win @ 1.48: our model gives Philadelphia Union 63.7%, the draw 20.3% and Real Salt Lake 15.9%. The market also sees Philadelphia Union as the favorite. The tables point the same way: 15 points out of 15 on one side, 1 point out of 15 on the other. Our model leans to this win, but the price does not pay this scenario.
Home draw no bet @ 1.19: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on a Real Salt Lake win. Our model leans to this line, and the price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 1X @ 1.15: this line covers two outcomes out of three, a Philadelphia Union win or the draw. Our model leans to it, and the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.53: the 58.6% probability is verified over two test seasons, without being an edge over the price. Philadelphia Union has scored in every one of its last 10 matches (0% without scoring), and Real Salt Lake has conceded 2.2 goals per game over its last 5. Real Salt Lake failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches. Our model leans to this scenario, but the price does not pay it.
The scenario that sinks the under 3.5 is an open game where Philadelphia Union, scoring 3.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches, reaches three on its own and Real Salt Lake adds one. We accept that risk because Real Salt Lake scores only 0.6 goals per game over its last 5 matches and failed to score in 40% of its last 10.
Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals @ 1.87, an AI lean and not an official pick, with no staking advice. The other lines stay as readings: the price does not pay them.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 A. Anello — Philadelphia Union · Groin Injury
- 🩹 E. Eneli — Real Salt Lake · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Sery Larsen — Philadelphia Union · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 P. Ndinga — Philadelphia Union · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 J. Glad — Real Salt Lake · Groin Injury
- 🩹 D. Luna — Real Salt Lake · Knee Injury
- 🩹 A. Piol — Real Salt Lake · Achilles Tendon Injury
- 🩹 J. J. Arias — Real Salt Lake · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 Z. Booth — Real Salt Lake · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 G. Dillon — Real Salt Lake · Foot Injury
- 🩹 L. Engel — Real Salt Lake · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 A. Katranis — Real Salt Lake · Groin Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Real Salt Lake
STAT
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia UnionHOMReal Salt LakeAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
