Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Paderborn-VfB Stuttgart score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Paderborn sit 12th in the table and have 3 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. Paderborn score 0.6 goals per game and concede 1.8 over that stretch. VfB Stuttgart sit 14th with 7 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. VfB Stuttgart score 2.2 goals per game and concede 2.2 over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.39: our model expects 1.31 goals from Paderborn and 2.52 from VfB Stuttgart, 3.83 in total. The reference script is an open game driven by VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart saw more than 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches, Paderborn in 44%. Recent xG created, 2.98 for the two attacks, points the same way. Our lean rests on a model probability of 73.9%, verified, against 71.9% implied by the price: the edge is thin (+2.0 pts).
Over 3.5 goals @ 2.03: the line needs at least 4 goals, which our model puts at 54.4% against 49.3% implied, +5.1 pts. Recent xG created (2.98) sits below this line; the model probability prevails, and its expected goals (3.83) clear it. This lean is more exposed than the one on over 2.5.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.12: the line only loses with 1 goal or fewer. Our model gives 89.9% against 89.3% implied, a thin edge (+0.6 pt).
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
VfB Stuttgart win @ 1.64: our model gives VfB Stuttgart 61.9%, the draw 22.4% and Paderborn 15.8%. The market also makes VfB Stuttgart the favorite. The edge is thin (+0.9 pt, price implies 61.0%). The xG created gap is -1.68 against Paderborn.
Away draw no bet @ 1.26: stake returned on a draw, lost if Paderborn win. Our model gives 79.7% against 79.4%, a thin edge (+0.3 pt).
Double chance X2 @ 1.21: two outcomes out of three, the draw or VfB Stuttgart; only a Paderborn win loses it. Our model gives 84.2% against 82.6%, +1.6 pts.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.45: our model leans this way (68.6%), but the price does not pay (69.0%, -0.4 pt). Paderborn failed to score in 75% of their last 10 matches, and VfB Stuttgart kept a clean sheet in 10% of theirs.
The script that sinks over 2.5: Paderborn stay blank, as in 75% of their last 10 matches, and VfB Stuttgart win 2-0. We accept that risk, because VfB Stuttgart concede 2.2 goals per game over their last 5 matches and kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their last 10.
Our lean is over 2.5 goals, with a VfB Stuttgart win as the read on the result. The other listed lines follow the same script; no staking advice.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 A. Al Dakhil — VfB Stuttgart · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Diehl — VfB Stuttgart · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 L. Jaquez — VfB Stuttgart · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 N. Nartey — VfB Stuttgart · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 T. Tomas — VfB Stuttgart · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 D. Zagadou — VfB Stuttgart · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
VfB Stuttgart
STAT
Paderborn
PaderbornHOMVfB StuttgartAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Paderborn – VfB Stuttgart ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 15:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Paderborn – VfB Stuttgart ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
