Orlando City vs Columbus Crew prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Orlando City-Columbus Crew score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Orlando City have taken 10 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 2.4 goals per match and concedes 1.8. Columbus Crew have 6 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 1.4 goals per match and concedes 1.2.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.80: our model expects 1.92 goals from Orlando City and 1.40 from Columbus Crew. That is a lively game whose central path stays under the 4 goals that would sink this bet. Recent xG created, 2.93 for the two attacks added together, is under the 3.5 line. Two data points cut the other way: Orlando City went over 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 10 matches, Columbus Crew in 80%. Our probability is 60.4% against an implied probability of 55.6%, an edge of +4.8 pts. This is an AI lean.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.45: an open game fits the tables. Our probability is 64.8% (verified probability), the implied probability 69.0%. The edge is -4.2 pts: the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome and never a central scenario.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.14: our probability is 82.5%, the implied probability 87.7%. The edge is -5.2 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 2.14: our model gives Orlando City 47.9%, the draw 25.8% and Columbus Crew 26.3%. The market also sees Orlando City as favorite. The implied probability of the price is 46.7%: the edge is +1.2 pts, thin. The recent xG gap of 0.83 points the same way as our model. This is an AI lean.
Home draw no bet @ 1.57: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on any defeat, however narrow. Our probability is 64.6%, the implied probability 63.7%. The edge is +0.9 pts, thin. This is an AI lean.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.25: two outcomes out of three, only the draw loses. Our probability is 74.3%, the implied probability 80.0%. The edge is -5.7 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.40: Orlando City were never shut out over their last 10 matches (0% without scoring), while Columbus Crew were in 10% of them. Our probability is 64.1% (verified probability), the implied probability 71.4%. The edge is -7.3 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks the Orlando City win is a Columbus Crew side that finds the net: Orlando City concede 1.8 goals per match and Columbus Crew went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches. This is the weak point of this reading.
Our lean goes to an Orlando City win, to Orlando City draw no bet and to under 3.5 goals, with no firm bet. The other lines remain readings that the price does not pay.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 T. Spicer — Orlando City · Foot Injury
- 🩹 G. Dorsey — Orlando City · Back Injury
- 🩹 B. Ojeda — Orlando City · Foot Injury
- 🩹 W. Abou Ali — Columbus Crew · Knee Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Columbus Crew
STAT
Orlando City
Orlando CityHOMColumbus CrewAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Orlando City – Columbus Crew ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Orlando City – Columbus Crew ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
