New York Red Bulls vs San Diego FC prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
New York Red Bulls-San Diego FC score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
New York Red Bulls have taken 7 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 0.8 goals per match and concedes 1.2. San Diego FC have 4 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 1.4 goals per match and concedes 2.4.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.87: our model expects 1.63 goals from New York Red Bulls and 1.64 from San Diego FC. The price pays this scenario: our probability is 61.2% against an implied probability of 53.5%, an edge of +7.7 pts. Recent xG created, 2.72 for the two attacks added together, is lower than the goals our model expects; the model probability prevails. One data point runs against this reading: San Diego FC concede 2.4 goals per match and went over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 10 matches. A 4-goal game would sink the bet. This is an AI lean.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.40: our probability is 63.9% (verified probability), the implied probability 71.4%. The edge is -7.5 pts: the price does not pay this scenario. Recent xG of 2.72 sits above this line, but the price is too short for our estimate. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.13: our probability is 82.0%, the implied probability 88.5%. The edge is -6.5 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away win @ 2.49: our model gives New York Red Bulls 35.6%, the draw 28.5% and San Diego FC 35.9%. The market separates the two clubs by little. The implied probability of the price is 40.2%: the edge is -4.3 pts, and the price does not pay this scenario.
Away draw no bet @ 1.86: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on any defeat, however narrow. Our probability is 50.2%, the implied probability 53.8%. The edge is -3.6 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.25: two outcomes out of three, only the draw loses. Our probability is 71.5%, the implied probability 80.0%. The edge is -8.5 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.36: New York Red Bulls failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches, San Diego FC in 20%. Our probability is 64.6% (verified probability), the implied probability 73.5%. The edge is -8.9 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5 is an open San Diego FC defense, conceding 2.4 goals per match, against an opponent that punishes it. We accept that risk, because New York Red Bulls score 0.8 goals per match and failed to score in 40% of their last 10 matches.
Our lean goes to under 3.5 goals @ 1.87, with no firm bet. The other lines remain readings that the price does not pay.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 O. Soe — San Diego FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 A. Marcucci — New York Red Bulls · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Che — New York Red Bulls · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 C. Harper — New York Red Bulls · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 J. Marshall-Rutty — New York Red Bulls · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 Gabriel Pirani — San Diego FC · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 A. Pellegrino — San Diego FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 S. Vines — San Diego FC · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 M. Dos Santos — New York Red Bulls · International duty
- 🩹 J. Che — New York Red Bulls · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 A. Marcucci — New York Red Bulls · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Marshall-Rutty — New York Red Bulls · Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
San Diego FC
STAT
New York Red Bulls
New York Red BullsHOMSan Diego FCAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue New York Red Bulls – San Diego FC ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour New York Red Bulls – San Diego FC ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
