New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
New England Revolution-Seattle Sounders score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
New England Revolution have taken 12 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 2.4 goals per match and concedes 1.4. Seattle Sounders have 9 points from 15 over their last 5 matches. The club scores 1.8 goals per match and concedes 1.0.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.65: our model expects 1.81 goals from New England Revolution and 1.45 from Seattle Sounders. That is an open game, but its central path stays under the 4 goals that would sink this bet. Recent xG created, 3.15 for the two attacks added together, sits under the 3.5 line. Two data points cut the other way: New England Revolution went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches and score 2.4 goals per match. Our probability is 60.9% against an implied probability of 60.6%, an edge of +0.3 pts: thin, but positive. This is our official pick.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.55: a game with three goals or more fits the tables. Our probability is 63.5% (verified probability) against an implied probability of 64.5%. The edge is -1.0 pts: the price does not pay this scenario. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome and never a central scenario.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.18: two goals are enough. Our probability is 81.8%, the implied probability 84.7%. The edge is -2.9 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.95: our model gives New England Revolution 44.4%, the draw 26.7% and Seattle Sounders 28.9%. The market also sees New England Revolution as favorite. The implied probability of the price is 51.3%: the edge is -6.9 pts, and the price does not pay this scenario.
Home draw no bet @ 1.44: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on any defeat, however narrow. Our probability is 60.6%, the implied probability 69.4%. The edge is -8.8 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.25: two outcomes out of three, only the draw loses. Our probability is 73.3%, the implied probability 80.0%. The edge is -6.7 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.50: New England Revolution failed to score in 10% of their last 10 matches, Seattle Sounders in 20%. Our probability is 63.9% (verified probability), the implied probability 66.7%. The edge is -2.8 pts: the price does not pay this scenario.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5 is a match that runs away to 4 goals: New England Revolution score 2.4 goals per match and went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches. We accept that risk, because Seattle Sounders concede only 1.0 goal per match over their last 5 matches.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.65, an official pick with a thin edge. The other lines remain readings of the match that the price does not pay.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 M. Fofana — New England Revolution · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 J. Harrison — New England Revolution · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 A. Yusuf — New England Revolution · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 L. Campana — New England Revolution · Hamstring Injury
- 🩹 N. Petkovic — Seattle Sounders · Knee Injury
- 🩹 P. Rothrock — Seattle Sounders · Tendon Injury
- 🩹 P. de La Vega — Seattle Sounders · Calf Injury
- 🩹 J. Ferreira — Seattle Sounders · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 P. Kingston — Seattle Sounders · Injury
- 🩹 J. Ferreira — Seattle Sounders · Injury
- 🩹 H. Dotson — Seattle Sounders · Yellow Cards
- 🩹 N. Petkovic — Seattle Sounders · Knee Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Seattle Sounders
STAT
New England Revolution
New England RevolutionHOMSeattle SoundersAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue New England Revolution – Seattle Sounders ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour New England Revolution – Seattle Sounders ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
