Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Mainz 05-Bayer Leverkusen score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Mainz 05 sit 6th in the table. The club has taken 7 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. In that run it scores 1.8 goals per game and concedes 1.2. Bayer Leverkusen are 4th, with 5 points from 15, 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over the same stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.47: our model leans to this line (66.3%, a verified probability), but the price does not pay this scenario: it implies 68.0%. Our model expects 1.52 goals from Mainz 05 and 1.86 from Bayer Leverkusen (3.38 in total). Recent xG created, 4.71 for the two attacks added together, points the same way. Bayer Leverkusen went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches, Mainz 05 in 60%.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.15: our model leans to this line (85.3%), but the price does not pay this scenario: it implies 87.0%.
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.79: our model leans to this line (52.7%), but the price does not pay this scenario: it implies 55.9%. Over 2.5 and under 3.5 only win together on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome. Recent xG created, 4.71, sits above this line.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away draw no bet @ 1.69: our lean goes to Bayer Leverkusen. Our model gives them 42.7%, against 28.2% for Mainz 05 and 29.1% for the draw. The 60.2% probability clears the 59.2% implied by the odds: the edge is thin, +1.0 pt. The stake is returned on a draw and lost if Mainz 05 win.
Double chance X2 @ 1.44: our lean goes to this line, which covers two outcomes out of three: a draw or a Bayer Leverkusen win. Our probability is 71.8%, a verified probability, against 69.4% implied: +2.4 pts.
Away win @ 2.31: our model leans to Bayer Leverkusen (42.7%), but the price does not pay this scenario: it implies 43.3%. Recent xG created sits close between the clubs, with a very slight gap toward Mainz 05 (0.15).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.40: our model leans to this line (69.6%), but the price does not pay this scenario: it implies 71.4%. Mainz 05 failed to score in 25% of their last 10 matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 0%.
The scenario that sinks the away draw no bet, and the X2 double chance with it, is a Mainz 05 win. Bayer Leverkusen took 5 points from 15 over their last 5 matches and concede 1.8 goals per game in that run. That is the weak point of this read.
Our lean goes to Bayer Leverkusen on the away draw no bet at 1.69, and to the X2 double chance at 1.44. This match carries no official pick.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 D. Kohr — Mainz 05 · Foot Injury
- 🩹 Silas — Mainz 05 · Broken shinbone
- 🩹 R. Zentner — Mainz 05 · Hand Injury
- 🩹 A. Caci — Mainz 05 · Face Injury
- 🩹 P. Nebel — Mainz 05 · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 O. Ruoppi — Mainz 05 · Knee Injury
- 🩹 S. Widmer — Mainz 05 · Knee Injury
- 🩹 M. Culbreath — Bayer Leverkusen · Foot Injury
- 🩹 G. Doue — Bayer Leverkusen · Calf Injury
- 🩹 K. Eichhorn — Bayer Leverkusen · Illness
- 🩹 C. Kofane — Bayer Leverkusen · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Bayer Leverkusen
STAT
Mainz 05
Mainz 05HOMBayer LeverkusenAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Mainz 05 – Bayer Leverkusen ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 15:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Mainz 05 – Bayer Leverkusen ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
