Inter Miami vs DC United prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Inter Miami-DC United score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Inter Miami has 7 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. The club scores 2.8 goals per game and concedes 1.6 over that stretch. DC United has 5 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. The club scores 0.8 goals per game and concedes 1.2.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals: our lean points to this line at 2.16. Our model expects 2.32 goals for Inter Miami and 1.31 for DC United (3.63 in total), an average above the line, but Under 3.5 wins up to 3 goals and loses only from 4. Our probability is 55.2% against 46.3% implied by the price, an edge of +8.9 pts. Some data cuts against this line: 80% of Inter Miami's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals, and the club scores 2.8 goals per game over its last 5. Recent xG created, at 3.27 for the two attacks added together, sits below the 3.5 line.
Over 2.5 goals: our model leans to this line at 1.30, with a probability of 70.4% (verified probability over two test seasons of the league). The price implies 76.9% and does not pay this scenario, an edge of -6.5 pts. Paired with Under 3.5, this line wins only with exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to this line at 1.09 (85.4%), but the price implies 91.7% and does not pay this scenario, an edge of -6.3 pts.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win: our model leans to Inter Miami at 1.41. It gives 58.6% to Inter Miami, 22.1% to the draw and 19.3% to DC United; the price implies 70.9% and does not pay this scenario, an edge of -12.3 pts. The market has Inter Miami clearly ahead (67.9%), with 17.3% for the draw and 14.8% for DC United. Recent xG created points the same way (Inter Miami − DC United gap: 0.49).
Inter Miami draw no bet: our model leans to this line at 1.16 (75.3%). The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat. The price implies 86.2% and does not pay this scenario, an edge of -10.9 pts.
Double chance 1X (home or draw): our model leans to this line at 1.13 (80.7%). It covers two outcomes out of three, but the price implies 88.5% and does not pay this scenario, an edge of -7.8 pts.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line at 1.44 (64.3%, verified probability). The price implies 69.4% and does not pay this scenario, an edge of -5.1 pts. Inter Miami has never failed to score over its last 10 matches (0%), while DC United did in 30% of its own.
The scenario that sinks Under 3.5 is a game with 4 goals or more, driven by Inter Miami, which scores 2.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches, with 80% of its last 10 above 2.5 goals. We accept that risk, because DC United scores 0.8 goals per game over its last 5 matches.
Our lean is under 3.5 goals at 2.16. The other lines in this match, including an Inter Miami win, remain readings from our model that the price does not pay.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 L. Munteanu — DC United · Leg Injury
- 🩹 T. Allende — Inter Miami · Knee Injury
- 🩹 S. Morales — Inter Miami · Red Card
- 🩹 M. Silvetti — Inter Miami · Injury
- 🩹 Y. Bright — Inter Miami · Foot Injury
- 🩹 I. Fray — Inter Miami · Groin Injury
- 🩹 F. Mura — Inter Miami · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 T. Segovia — Inter Miami · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 G. Segal — DC United · Leg Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
DC United
STAT
Inter Miami
Inter MiamiHOMDC UnitedAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Inter Miami – DC United ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Inter Miami – DC United ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
