Genoa CFC vs ACF Fiorentina prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Genoa CFC-ACF Fiorentina score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Genoa CFC scores 0.4 goals per match and concedes 1.8 over its last 5 matches. The club has 1 point from 15 over that stretch. ACF Fiorentina scores 1.2 goals per match and concedes 2.4 over its last 5 matches. It has 4 points from 15.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 2.5 goals: our model expects 1.05 goals from Genoa CFC and 1.40 from ACF Fiorentina, a total of 2.45. That is a tight game that stays under the line. Our lean is under 2.5 goals @ 1.87: 55.0% for our model against 53.5% for the odds, a thin edge. Two data points cut against this read. Recent xG created by the two attacks added together reach 2.57, above the line, and 50% of ACF Fiorentina's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. Genoa CFC sits at 30%. When the xG figure and our probability diverge, the model probability prevails.
Under 3.5 goals: the line loses at 4 goals. Our lean is under 3.5 goals @ 1.31, with 77.9% for our model against 76.3% for the odds, a thin edge. Genoa CFC scores 0.4 goals per match over its last 5 matches, which narrows the path to a high score.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to over 1.5 goals @ 1.35, but the price does not pay this scenario (72.3% against 74.1%).
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away win: the market makes ACF Fiorentina the favorite, and our model agrees, with 42.7% for them against 25.4% for Genoa CFC and 31.8% for the draw. Our lean is an ACF Fiorentina win @ 2.39. Value bet: our probability stays a minority one (42.7%), but the price overpays this scenario by 0.9 points. This is a read, not a recommended bet. The xG gap is -0.77 on Genoa CFC's side, which points the same way.
Away draw no bet: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on a Genoa CFC win. Our lean is this line @ 1.68, at 62.7% for our model against 59.5% for the odds. Our probability on this market has been verified over two test seasons of the league. That supports the probability itself, without guaranteeing an edge on the price.
Double chance X2: this line covers the draw and an ACF Fiorentina win, two outcomes out of three. Our lean is X2 @ 1.40, at 74.6% for our model against 71.4% for the odds.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line @ 1.80, but the price does not pay this scenario (52.1% against 55.6%). Paired with under 2.5, it leaves only 1-1. Genoa CFC failed to score in 60% of its last 10 matches.
The scenario that sinks under 2.5 is an open game: ACF Fiorentina concedes 2.4 goals per match over its last 5 matches, and 50% of its last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. We accept this risk because Genoa CFC scores only 0.4 goals per match over its last 5 matches, and 60% of its last 10 matches ended without a goal from them.
Our lean is under 2.5 goals @ 1.87, with a thin edge. The same tight-game scenario supports the leans on under 3.5 goals, away draw no bet and double chance X2. This is not an official pick.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
- 🩹 R. Sottil — ACF Fiorentina · Back Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
ACF Fiorentina
STAT
Genoa CFC
Genoa CFCHOMACF FiorentinaAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Genoa CFC – ACF Fiorentina ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 15:00 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Genoa CFC – ACF Fiorentina ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
