FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
FC Augsburg-Bayern Munich score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
PROView full analysis
GAME CONTEXT
FC Augsburg are 5th in the table. The club has taken 10 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. In that run it scores 2.4 goals per game and concedes 1.6. Bayern Munich are 2nd, with 13 points from 15, 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game over the same stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 3.5 goals @ 1.42: our lean goes to this line, which needs at least 4 goals. Our model expects 3.61 goals from Bayern Munich and 1.18 from FC Augsburg (4.79 in total), the picture of an open game with Bayern Munich on top. Recent xG created, 4.52 for the two attacks added together, sits above the line. FC Augsburg and Bayern Munich each went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last 10 matches. One figure cuts against the line: Bayern Munich concede just 0.6 goals per game over their last 5 matches. Our 72.4% probability clears the 70.4% implied by the odds: the edge is +2.0 pts.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.16: our model leans to this line (85.7%), but the price does not pay this scenario: it implies 86.2%.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.05: our model leans to this line (94.6%), but the price does not pay this scenario: it implies 95.2%.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Away win @ 1.21: our model leans to Bayern Munich, at 80.5%, against 6.9% for FC Augsburg and 12.6% for the draw. The odds imply 82.6%: the price does not pay this scenario.
Away draw no bet @ 1.08: our model leans to this line (92.1%, against 92.6% implied). The price does not pay this scenario. The stake is returned on a draw and lost if Bayern Munich lose.
Double chance X2 @ 1.06: our model leans to this line, which covers two outcomes out of three (93.1%, against 94.3% implied). The price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.45: our model leans to this line (68.7%, against 69.0% implied), but the price does not pay this scenario. FC Augsburg failed to score in 0% of their last 10 matches. Bayern Munich failed to score in 25% of theirs.
The scenario that sinks over 3.5 is a Bayern Munich clean sheet, a 3-0 for instance. The club concedes just 0.6 goals per game over its last 5 matches and kept a clean sheet in 30% of its last 10. We accept that risk, because FC Augsburg failed to score in 0% of their last 10 matches.
Our lean goes to over 3.5 goals at 1.42, in a game our model sees Bayern Munich controlling. This match carries no official pick.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 U. Ogundu — FC Augsburg · Abdominal strain
- 🩹 T. Buchmann — Bayern Munich · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Musiala — Bayern Munich · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 N. Banks — FC Augsburg · Knee Injury
- 🩹 S. Suso — FC Augsburg · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 T. Breithaupt — FC Augsburg · Toe Injury
- 🩹 A. Kade — FC Augsburg · Calf Injury
- 🩹 S. Mounie — FC Augsburg · Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Bayern Munich
STAT
FC Augsburg
FC AugsburgHOMBayern MunichAWYHead-to-Head
Unlock all picks and the full analysis
The verdict on every market, the full written analysis, line-ups, injuries, referee and odds from 11 bookmakers — no commitment.
Secure Stripe payment — Analysis independent from the betting market
Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue FC Augsburg – Bayern Munich ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 15:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour FC Augsburg – Bayern Munich ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
