Chicago Fire vs New York City prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Chicago Fire-New York City score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Chicago Fire scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 2.0 over its last 5 matches. Chicago Fire has 5 points from 15 over that stretch. New York City scores 1.0 goal per game and concedes 1.0 over its last 5 matches. New York City has 5 points from 15 over that stretch.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.65: our model expects 1.80 goals from Chicago Fire and 1.43 from New York City, 3.24 in total. The base case is an open game that stops short of a fourth goal, since under 3.5 loses at 4 goals. Recent xG created, 2.48 for the two attacks combined, sits below this line. The expected goals, 3.24, are close to the line, and 70% of Chicago Fire's last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals, against 50% for New York City: those figures point the other way. Our model gives this outcome 61.1%, against 60.6% for the price: we back it, with a thin edge of 0.5 points.
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.58: recent xG created, 2.48, is under the line; the model probability prevails. Our model leans to over 2.5, but the price does not pay this scenario.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.18: the model probability is 81.6%, the implied probability of the price 84.7%. Our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win @ 1.92: our model gives Chicago Fire 44.5%, the draw 26.7% and New York City 28.7%. The market sees Chicago Fire as favorite, with a draw less likely than either club winning. Our model leans to Chicago Fire, but the price does not pay this scenario.
Home draw no bet @ 1.40: the stake is returned on a draw and lost if New York City wins. Our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario.
Double chance 12 (no draw) @ 1.26: two outcomes out of three are covered; only a draw loses. Our model leans to this line, but the price does not pay this scenario.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.57: Chicago Fire failed to score in 10% of its last 10 matches, New York City in 20%. Our model expects 1.80 goals from Chicago Fire and 1.43 from New York City. Our lean is yes, with no edge over the price.
The scenario that sinks under 3.5 is a game with four goals or more. Chicago Fire concedes 2.0 goals per game over its last 5 matches and goes over 2.5 goals in 70% of its last 10. We accept this risk, because New York City scores 1.0 goal per game over its last 5 matches.
We back under 3.5 goals @ 1.65, with no staking advice. Our lean is both teams to score: yes, with no firm bet.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 R. Lod — Chicago Fire · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 A. Mekvabishvili — Chicago Fire · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 S. Rogers — Chicago Fire · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 M. Ilenic — New York City · Illness
- 🩹 A. Franco — Chicago Fire · Knee Injury
- 🩹 R. Turdean — Chicago Fire · Inactive
- 🩹 D. Baiera — New York City · Knee Injury
- 🩹 A. Farnos — New York City · Injury
- 🩹 M. Moralez — New York City · Knee Injury
- 🩹 K. Parks — New York City · Injury
- 🩹 Talles Magno — New York City · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 K. Trewin — New York City · Ankle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
New York City
STAT
Chicago Fire
Chicago FireHOMNew York CityAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Chicago Fire – New York City ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 20:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Chicago Fire – New York City ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
