Charlotte vs FC Dallas prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Charlotte-FC Dallas score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Charlotte has 11 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. The club scores 1.8 goals per game and concedes 1.0 over that stretch. FC Dallas has 11 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. The club scores 2.2 goals per game and concedes 1.6.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Under 3.5 goals: we back this line at 1.60. Our model expects 1.82 goals for Charlotte and 1.42 for FC Dallas (3.24 in total), an open game that still stays under 4 goals, the point where Under 3.5 loses. Our probability is 52.5% against 62.5% implied by the price, an edge of -10.0 pts. Some data cuts against this line: 70% of Charlotte's last 10 matches and 70% of FC Dallas's went over 2.5 goals, and FC Dallas scores 2.2 goals per game over its last 5. Recent xG created, at 2.91 for the two attacks added together, sits below the line.
Over 2.5 goals: our lean points to this line at 1.60. Our probability is 63.0% (verified probability over two test seasons of the league) against 62.5% implied: the edge is thin, +0.5 pts. Paired with Under 3.5, this line wins only with exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome. Recent xG created, at 2.91, sits above the 2.5 line.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to this line at 1.19 (81.5%), but the price implies 84.0% and does not pay this scenario, an edge of -2.5 pts.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Home win: our lean is Charlotte at 2.32. Our model gives 45.1% to Charlotte, 26.6% to the draw and 28.3% to FC Dallas; the price implies 43.1%, a thin edge of +2.0 pts. This is a minority-probability read: our number stays below half (45.1%), yet the price overpays this scenario. It is a reading, not a firm bet. The market has Charlotte ahead (41.0%), with 34.5% for FC Dallas and 24.5% for the draw. Recent xG created points the other way (Charlotte − FC Dallas gap: -0.43); our model probability prevails.
Charlotte draw no bet: our lean points to this line at 1.70. The stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat. Our probability is 61.4% against 58.8% implied, an edge of +2.6 pts.
Double chance 12 (no draw): our model leans to this line at 1.28 (73.4%). It covers two outcomes out of three, but the price implies 78.1% and does not pay this scenario, an edge of -4.7 pts.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: our model leans to this line at 1.50 (63.5%, verified probability). The price implies 66.7% and does not pay this scenario, an edge of -3.2 pts. Charlotte failed to score in 10% of its last 10 matches, FC Dallas in 40% of its own.
The scenario that sinks Under 3.5 is a game with 4 goals or more, driven by the FC Dallas attack, which scores 2.2 goals per game over its last 5 matches. We accept that risk, because FC Dallas failed to score in 40% of its last 10 matches.
We back under 3.5 goals at 1.60, with no staking advice. Our leans point to over 2.5 goals, a Charlotte win and Charlotte draw no bet.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 N. Berchimas — Charlotte · Foot Injury
- 🩹 A. Goodwin — Charlotte · Foot Injury
- 🩹 A. John — Charlotte · Upper-Body Injury
- 🩹 T. Ream — Charlotte · Red Card
- 🩹 B. Bronico — Charlotte · Lower-Body Injury
- 🩹 Daniel — FC Dallas · Leg Injury
- 🩹 Geovane Jesus — FC Dallas · Knee Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
FC Dallas
STAT
Charlotte
CharlotteHOMFC DallasAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Charlotte – FC Dallas ?
Le match se joue le 11/10/2026 à 01:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Charlotte – FC Dallas ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
