Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Alaves-Atletico Madrid score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Alaves took 7 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scored 1.6 goals per game over that stretch and conceded 1.2. Atletico Madrid took 10 points from 15 over its last 5 matches. It scored 2.4 goals per game over that stretch and conceded 1.2.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92: our lean points this way. Our model expects 0.99 goals from Alaves and 1.82 from Atletico Madrid, a total of 2.81. Recent xG created, 3.13 combined, points the same direction. Atletico Madrid has gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches, Alaves in 40% of its own. Model probability is 53.3% against 52.1% implied, so the edge is thin.
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.28: our model leans to this scenario (76.2%), but the implied probability is 78.1%. The price does not pay this scenario.
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.39: our lean points to fewer than 4 goals (72.2%, verified probability, against 71.9% implied), with a thin edge of +0.3 points. Paired with over 2.5, this line only wins on exactly 3 goals, a narrow outcome. Recent xG created (3.13) sits below the 3.5 line, but Atletico Madrid scores 2.4 goals per game over its last 5 matches, a figure that cuts against this line.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Atletico Madrid win @ 1.88: the market has Atletico Madrid as favorite (51.4%), with Alaves at 22.8% and the draw at 25.9%. Our model gives Atletico Madrid 56.3%, the draw 24.0% and Alaves 19.7%. Our lean is an Atletico Madrid win: model probability is 56.3% against 53.2% implied, an edge of +3.1 points.
Away draw no bet @ 1.35: our lean is Atletico Madrid (74.1%), level with the implied probability, so there is no edge. The stake is refunded on a draw and lost on a defeat, even a narrow one.
Double chance X2 @ 1.24: our model leans to a draw or an Atletico Madrid win (80.3%) against 80.6% implied. The price does not pay this scenario. This line covers two outcomes out of three.
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes @ 1.80: our lean points this way (57.9%, verified probability, against 55.6% implied), an edge of +2.3 points. Alaves failed to score in 10% of its last 10 matches, Atletico Madrid in 20% of its own. Alaves kept a clean sheet in 40% of its last 10 matches, and so did Atletico Madrid: both figures cut against the line.
Alaves conceded nothing in 40% of its last 10 matches, so a tight game or a draw is possible, and an Atletico Madrid win would fail. We accept this risk, because Atletico Madrid failed to score in only 20% of its last 10 matches and scores 2.4 goals per game over the last 5.
Our lean is an Atletico Madrid win, with both teams to score: yes and over 2.5 goals pointing the same way. There is no firm bet on this match, and no staking advice.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 F. Garces — Alaves · Suspended
- 🩹 V. Koski — Alaves · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 M. Rodriguez — Alaves · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 A. Sorloth — Atletico Madrid · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 R. Mendoza — Atletico Madrid · Inactive
- 🩹 O. Vargas — Atletico Madrid · Inactive
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Atletico Madrid
STAT
Alaves
AlavesHOMAtletico MadridAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Alaves – Atletico Madrid ?
Le match se joue le 10/10/2026 à 16:15 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Alaves – Atletico Madrid ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
