Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction: AI analysis & odds
Our picks for this match
Most likely scorelines
Borussia Dortmund-Werder Bremen score, bivariate Poisson goals model (Dixon-Coles). Correct score remains football's hardest market: our top scoreline hits ~15% of the time, in line with the displayed probability. AI correct score generator & method →
Our Expert Analysis
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GAME CONTEXT
Borussia Dortmund sit 1st in the table. The club has 15 points from 15 over its last 5 matches, scoring 2.6 goals and conceding 0.8 per game. Werder Bremen are 8th. The club has 4 points from 15 over its last 5 matches, scoring 1.0 goal and conceding 1.8 per game.
TOTALS ANALYSIS (Over/Under)
Over 2.5 goals: our model's reference scenario runs near 3.66 expected goals in total, with 2.61 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.04 for Werder Bremen. Over 2.5 lands on the third goal. Recent xG created, 3.21 for the two attacks combined, sits above this line but below our model's expected total; the model probability carries the call. Borussia Dortmund went over 2.5 goals in 50% of their last 10 matches, Werder Bremen in 60%. Our lean goes to this line, with a thin edge of +0.5 pts.
Over 3.5 goals: this line needs four goals at least. It tracks the expected total of 3.66, but the model probability of 51.4% is narrower. Our lean goes to this line: the 2.06 price pays our estimate, at +2.9 pts. The recent xG created of 3.21 is below this line.
Over 1.5 goals: our model leans to this line, but the 1.13 price does not pay this scenario (-0.2 pts). It is nearly settled in our scenario, with no payout to match.
1X2 ANALYSIS (Match Result)
Borussia Dortmund win: our model gives Borussia Dortmund 69.3%, the draw 20.0% and Werder Bremen 10.7%. The market also sees Borussia Dortmund as favorite, with the draw at 5.51. Our model leans to the home win at 1.41, but the price does not pay this scenario (-1.6 pts).
Double chance 1X: this line covers two outcomes out of three, a Borussia Dortmund win or a draw. Our lean goes to it at 1.12, with no edge (+0.0 pts): it reads as a cautious take on the balance of strength, with no gap against the price.
Borussia Dortmund draw no bet: the stake is returned on a draw and lost on a defeat. Our model leans to this line at 1.15, but the price does not pay this scenario (-0.4 pts).
OTHER MARKETS
Both teams to score: yes: Werder Bremen failed to score in none of their last 10 matches (0%), and neither did Borussia Dortmund. Our model expects 1.04 goals for Werder Bremen. Our lean goes to this line, with +3.1 pts. Werder Bremen kept a clean sheet in 0% of their last 10 matches, Borussia Dortmund in 50%: Borussia Dortmund shut the door one game in two.
The scenario that sinks our goals lines is a controlled game from Borussia Dortmund: the club kept a clean sheet in 50% of its last 10 matches, which would cost the both teams to score line. We accept this risk, because Borussia Dortmund concede 0.8 goals per game but score 2.6, which keeps Over 2.5 alive even in a shutout.
Our lean goes to over 2.5 goals, both teams to score: yes, over 3.5 goals and double chance 1X, with no firm bet. None of these lines is an official pick.
Key Factors
Line-ups & absences
- 🩹 E. Can — Borussia Dortmund · Knee Injury
- 🩹 M. Kaba — Borussia Dortmund · Injury
- 🩹 G. Konstantelias — Borussia Dortmund · Knee Injury
- 🩹 J. Lerma — Borussia Dortmund · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 F. Mane — Borussia Dortmund · Muscle Injury
- 🩹 N. Schlotterbeck — Borussia Dortmund · Ankle Injury
- 🩹 J. Ryerson — Borussia Dortmund · Ribs Injury
- 🩹 F. Agu — Werder Bremen · Calf Injury
- 🩹 S. Alvero — Werder Bremen · Calf Injury
- 🩹 M. N'Diaye — Werder Bremen · Groin Injury
- 🩹 J. Njinmah — Werder Bremen · Thigh Injury
- 🩹 J. Stage — Werder Bremen · Muscle Injury
The referee
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
11 of 35 model features (last 5-10 games)
Werder Bremen
STAT
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia DortmundHOMWerder BremenAWYHead-to-Head
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Frequently asked questions
Quand se joue Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen ?
Le match se joue le 09/10/2026 à 20:30 (heure de Paris).
Où trouver un pronostic pour Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen ?
Cette page ProbWin affiche les probabilités calibrées de notre modèle pour chaque marché (1X2, plus/moins de buts), les scores les plus probables, la forme des deux équipes et, le jour du match, une analyse écrite complète.
Comment sont calculées ces probabilités ?
Nos modèles statistiques sont entraînés sur l'historique de 40 championnats (buts, forme, calendrier) et recalibrés chaque jour. Chaque prédiction est publiée avant le coup d'envoi et son résultat est conservé dans notre journal public.
