UTA @ TOR NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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UTATOROur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
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CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Toronto is 8 wins, 6 losses and 2 overtime or shootout losses in 16 games, good for 18 standings points. Its last game was October 31, 2026, with 2 days of rest. Utah has 9 wins, 6 losses and 0 overtime or shootout losses in 15 games, also 18 standings points, and last played on November 1, 2026, with 1 day of rest.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Bobrovsky is confirmed with a 0.892 save percentage; Cossa, the probable starter, is at 0.865. Utah has the edge at 5-on-5: 54.8% of shot attempts versus 45.6% for Toronto, with 3.58 expected goals for and 2.69 against, compared with 3.02 and 3.14 for Toronto. Utah plays this game on 1 day of rest, Toronto on 2. With both goalies under a 0.900 save percentage, the game could open up and be decided late.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: No moneyline pick: our model gives Utah Mammoth 62.6%, while the 1.770 price implies 56.5%. The numbers point toward Utah on expected goals and share of shot attempts, but Utah's probable starter is still at a 0.865 save percentage.
TOTALS: We are backing OVER 6.5 @ 1.770. Our projection is 6.65 goals against a line of 6.5, which is 0.15 goals above it: the edge is slim. The numbers point that way. Toronto is averaging 4.20 goals scored and 3.60 allowed per game over 10 games, with 3.14 expected goals against. Utah is at 3.40 scored and 3.80 allowed. Both goalies are under a 0.900 save percentage, and the line has not moved since opening at 6.5. An Over 6.5 loses at 6 goals or fewer.
Utah allows only 2.69 expected goals per game, and Cossa is giving up 2.55 goals per game over his last 10 starts: a tight game, at 6 goals or fewer, would lose the line. We accept that risk, because Utah has allowed 3.80 goals per game over its last 10 games.
No moneyline pick. Our official pick is OVER 6.5 @ 1.770, with no staking advice.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA |
3.58 | 2.69 | 54.8% | 30.8% | 40.9% |
| TOR |
3.02 | 3.14 | 45.6% | 57.1% | 90.0% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
UTA
STAT
TOR
Frequently asked questions
When was UTA @ TOR played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-11-03.
Where can I find the prediction for UTA @ TOR?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
