MIN @ PHI NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
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MINPHIOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
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CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Philadelphia has 4 wins, 8 regulation losses and 4 overtime or shootout losses after 16 games, for 12 standings points. Its last game was on November 1, 2026, and it has 1 day of rest. Minnesota has 10 wins, 3 regulation losses and 3 overtime or shootout losses after 16 games, for 23 standings points. Its last game was on November 1, 2026, and it has 1 day of rest.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
Wallstedt has better numbers than Vladar over 10 starts: a .912 save percentage versus .905, and a 2.30 GAA versus 2.66. At 5-on-5, Minnesota dominates with 55.4% of shot attempts versus 47.8% for Philadelphia. The expected goals point the same way: 4.26 for and 2.64 against for Minnesota, 2.68 for and 3.24 against for Philadelphia. Both teams are playing with 1 day of rest, so fatigue doesn't separate them.
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: Our lean is Minnesota Wild at 1.560. Our model gives Minnesota a 73.4% chance, while the odds imply 64.1%. The numbers support this: Minnesota has produced 3.20 goals per game over its last 10 games versus 2.30 for Philadelphia. Philadelphia has nonetheless won four of the last five head-to-head meetings, the most recent a 3-2 win in Minnesota on March 12, 2026.
TOTALS: Our model leans toward the Under 6.0, with a projection of 5.80 goals, 0.20 goal below the line. The odds don't pay off this scenario, and we are not making a pick on this market.
Vladar can come up with a solid night, given his GSAx of +0.41 over his last 10 starts. That scenario would take away Minnesota's shot advantage. We accept this risk, because Philadelphia is allowing 3.24 expected goals and 3.10 actual goals per game over its last 10 games.
Our AI trend leans toward Minnesota Wild at 1.560. We are not making a pick on the total.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN |
4.26 | 2.64 | 55.4% | 23.1% | 72.7% |
| PHI |
2.68 | 3.24 | 47.8% | 26.1% | 84.6% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
MIN
STAT
PHI
Frequently asked questions
When was MIN @ PHI played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-11-03.
Where can I find the prediction for MIN @ PHI?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
