TOR @ EDM NHL prediction: AI analysis & picks
Start 23:00
TOREDMOur picks for this match
Our Expert Analysis
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CONFIRMED GOALIES
GAME CONTEXT
Edmonton is 8 wins, 1 loss and 1 overtime or shootout loss in 10 games (17 standings points), with 1 day of rest since its October 22, 2026 game. Toronto is 6 wins, 4 losses and 2 overtime or shootout losses in 12 games (14 standings points), with 1 day of rest since its October 22, 2026 game.
KEY ABSENCES
GAME SCRIPT
The goalie matchup is the key: Jarry has a 0.824 save percentage for Edmonton and Stolarz a 0.899 for Toronto, with a GSAx of -1.37 against +0.32. At 5-on-5, Edmonton controls 49.0% of shot attempts and Toronto 45.9%, but Toronto allows 3.60 expected goals per game compared with 2.85 for Edmonton. Both teams have one day of rest, so there is no fatigue edge. The game can swing if Jarry lets in soft goals, or if a wide-open third period favors Edmonton's offense (4.30 goals scored per game).
OUR ANALYSIS
MONEYLINE: No moneyline pick. Our model gives the Toronto Maple Leafs a 60.9% chance, while the 2.520 odds imply 39.7%. The numbers point the same way as the model on the goalie matchup, and Toronto has won four of the last five meetings (5-2 on February 3, 2026 in Edmonton). On the other side, Edmonton has the better recent record and scores more.
TOTALS: No total pick. Our model projects 6.02 goals, which is 0.98 goals under the 7.0 line. Still, goalies below a 0.900 save percentage and the 7.0 line, unchanged since the open, pull toward the over. The numbers do not allow a clear call in the direction of the model.
The absences of Tanev and Rifai on Toronto's blue line, against an Edmonton offense that scores 4.30 goals per game, could open up the game. A total over the line would then become plausible.
We are not playing this game.
Key Factors
| Team | xGF (10g) | xGA (10g) | Corsi% | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR |
3.24 | 3.60 | 45.9% | 44.0% | 96.9% |
| EDM |
3.11 | 2.85 | 49.0% | 28.6% | 60.0% |
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Head-to-Head
Form & Stats
Team Comparison
8 of 31 model features (last 5-10 games)
TOR
STAT
EDM
Frequently asked questions
When was TOR @ EDM played?
This NHL game was played on 2026-10-24.
Where can I find the prediction for TOR @ EDM?
This ProbWin page shows the predictions our model published before the game (moneyline and totals), the key stats for both sides, and the settled result — every prediction is kept, win or lose, in our public track record.
How are these predictions calculated?
Our NHL statistical models are trained on league history and recomputed daily from team and player stats plus market odds. Every prediction is published before the game and its result is settled publicly.
